Rolling LME/SHFE price report 06/05: Tin survives dollar pressure to close higher

Welcome to the rolling base metals price report tracking the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange markets on Wednesday May 6. This article will be updated throughout the day with the latest on prices, comments, economic data and analysis.

Welcome to the rolling base metals price report tracking the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange markets on Wednesday May 6. This article will be updated throughout the day with the latest on prices, comments, economic data and analysis.

17:30 London Time Update
Tin was the only one of the base metals to close higher than yesterday, as the rest of the complex headed back down from yesterday's highs. The US dollar weakened during the day, pulling prices down, while falls in productivity squeezed the currency further. Sucden had this to add:
"Today saw a modest correction in LME prices from the highs seen yesterday. Ali traded back to the key $1,930 region and copper found support on the dip below $6,400 with spreads also easing. Lead held $2,100 and zinc edged back to $2,365 but the tightness cash – May intensified."

17:15 London Time Update

5PM Evening evaluations
  Closing price ($/t) Change from prvs day ($)
Copper 6390 -90
Aluminium 1919.85 -54.15
Zinc 2368 -33
Lead 2083 -76
Nickel 13975 -325
Tin 16200 95


16:00 London Time Update

LME Official settlements 
   Settlement Price ($/t) Change from prvs day ($)
Copper 6404 -4
Aluminium 1937.5 11.5
Zinc 2377 6.5
Lead 2120 -17
Nickel 14470 290
Tin 16010 -40


14:10 London Time Update

Copper
  Price ($/t) Change since close (%)
Copper 6425 -0.85
Aluminium 1937.5 -2.05
Zinc 2382 -0.77
Lead 2122 -1.71
Nickel 14400 0.70
Tin 16130 0.16


12:35 London Time Update

A category I ring-dealer had this to say about the weakness in today’s prices:
“It’s options declaration day today and the base metals are coming off the boil. Copper has had a little bit of hedge selling against the options, and zinc has had about 2,300 lots so far this morning. The dollar is a little bit weaker, but nothing serious. There is no news to support the drop, it’s just sentiment and the major thing affecting that is options calls.”


Copper
  Price ($/t) Change since close (%)
Copper 6400 -1.23
Aluminium 1939.5 -1.95
Zinc 2379.5 -0.87
Lead 2113.5 -2.11
Nickel 14360 0.42
Tin 16130 0.16
Spreads
  C3M spread ($) Change ($)
Copper 1.75 -9.75
Aluminium -18.75 -11
Zinc 33 13
Lead -2.5 -9.5
Nickel -42 -0.5
Tin -35 1
  Tom/next ($) Change ($)
Copper -0.44 -0.54
Aluminium 9.5 10.15
Zinc 18 13
Lead -0.55 -0.06
Nickel -1 -0.05
Tin -1 0


10:40 London Time Update
Nickel continued to rise – up another 0.73% from yesterday – and tin was up 0.6%, while the rest of the base metals complex inched downwards at the start of London trading.

Marex Spectron sees CTA buying on nickel:
“Nickel has seen some arb selling overnight, but CTA type buying on the London open. The metal has reached the 50% Fibb retracement level of the $17,200 Dec 2014 high down to $12,205 April low."

Still, nickel and tin aside, traders see profit-taking:
“Looks like this spike in metals could be sold. I hear there’s a big fund buying June put options, the right to sell, at $2,300 on zinc; a bearish bet. I’ve shorted zinc; fundamentals are still not bullish, SHFE stocks have soared and the price is trading a premium of more than 40% of production costs. Zinc and aluminium are driven purely by technical in my opinion; this is CTA buying action,” a futures trader told Metal Bulletin.

“Aluminium is touching a long term bearish line, it’s shorted at around $1,975. Over the last hour prices have dipped from $1,977 to $1,942. Funds and producers are shorting it, in my opinion.”
 

Today sees ADP employment change numbers out of the USA ahead of tomorrow’s jobless claims numbers and. Friday sees non-farm payroll data. A number of Fed speeches today will also keep the market watching.


9:10 London time update

 Latest 3M Prices
  Price ($/t) Change since close (%)
Copper 6416 -0.99
Aluminium 1952.5 -1.29
Zinc 2378.5 -0.92
Lead 2136 -1.07
Nickel 14405 0.73
Tin 16200 0.59
Spreads
  C3M spread ($) Change ($)
Copper 1.75 -9.75
Aluminium -18.75 -11
Zinc 33 13
Lead -2.5 -9.5
Nickel -42 -0.5
Tin -36 -2
  Tom/next ($) Change ($)
Copper 0.1 -0.1
Aluminium 5 5.65
Zinc 6 1
Lead -0.4 0.09
Nickel -0.85 0.1
Tin -0.9 0.1
Stocks
  Closing stocks (t) net change (t)
Copper 341000 -325
Aluminium 3863250 -16875
Lead 166350 -3900
Zinc 459750 -6200
Nickel 443916 -144
Tin 8715 -355
  Cancelled warrants (t) net change (t)
Copper 86,300 -1,175
Aluminium 1,752,150 -37,400
Lead 67,875 -3,775
Zinc 126,250 -6,200
Nickel 117,456 -1,650
Tin 635 -305

09:17 London time/16:17 Shanghai time update

Market is waiting for USA ADP data of April which will be released at 20:15pm Beijing time, market anticipate the data will be 200k,and in March the data was 189k.
So far at 17:00pm Shanghai time, dollar index was at 94.816, went down 0.33% than previous trading session, Nickel and Tin rose slightly.

Three-month LME base metals at 16:17  Shanghai time/09:17 Londom time

LME  Open ($/t) Latest price Percentage change ($/t) change
Copper 6,433 6,415 -0.28 -18
Aluminium 1,970 1,947 -1.17 -23
Lead 2,159 2,132.50 -1.23 -26.5
Zinc 2,391 2,374.50 -0.69 -16.5
Tin 16,100 16,200 0.62 100
Nickel 14,250 14,260 0.07 10


08:30 London time/15:30 Shanghai time update

SHFE July nickel contract hit its daily upside limit by rising 5%, which market participants attributed to short-squeezing.

"The longs are cornering the shorts, it seems there is nothing the SHFE can do about it," an anlyst said.

"There is no improvement in fundamentals at all for nickel, it is just short-squeezing," a major physical dealer said, adding her company is hoarding their nickel for the spot market.

Most-traded base metals on SHFE at 15:30 Shanghai time/08:30 London time


SHFE     Open (yuan/t) Latest price Percentage change (yuan/t) change
copper 45,850 46,130 0.61 280
aluminium 13,420 13,580 1.19 160
Zinc 17,195 17,370 1.02 175
Lead 13,880 13,910 0.22 30
Tin  119,650 123,400 3.13 3,750
Nickel  110,000 113,380 3.07 3,380

07:30 London time/14:30 Shanghai time update


Recap:
base metal prices are slightly stronger this afternoon in Shanghai/this morning in London on China stimulus hopes, weaker dollar, stronger oil prices.

Latest figures on speculative positioning have just come in from ring dealer Marex Spectron, which shed light on the short-covering we saw last week. (The figures run to close on April 30).

Short positions fell across nickel (to 6% of open interest), copper (3% of open interest), tin (44% of open interest) and aluminium (1.6% of open interest).

Zinc is the only market where speculators are long, according to Marex's analysis: speculative length increased to 2% of open interest.

Most-traded base metals on SHFE at 11:30 Shanghai time/04:30 London time

SHFE     Open (yuan/t) Latest price Percentage change (yuan/t) change
copper 45,850 46,020 0.37 170
aluminium 13,420 13,656 1.76 236
Zinc 17,195 17,345 0.87 150
Lead 13,880 13,920 0.29 40
Tin  119,650 122,080 2.03 2,430
Nickel  110,000 112,020 1.84 2,020

Metals fell on profit-taking in Asian trading hours after rallying strongly overnight. Yet prices remain supported  due to expectations  that China will provide additional stimulus after subdued manufacturing data was released. Glencore also reporting a 9% decline in copper output to 350,700t in Q1, due to falling ore grades and maintenance shutdowns in Chile supported fundamentals. Gold hit a high of USD1,200/oz in early trading, finding support from higher energy prices. Gold is often used as an inflation-hedge and reviving oil prices has fuelled expectations that US inflation would start to pick up.


Three-month LME base metals at 10:49 Shanghai time/03:49 London time
LME  Open ($/t) Latest price Percentage change ($/t) change
Copper 6,433 6,413 -0.31 -20
Aluminium 1,970 1,967 -0.15 -3
Lead 2,159 2,145 -0.65 -14
Zinc 2,391 2,384 -0.31 -7.5
Tin 16,100 16,050 -0.31 -50
Nickel 14,250 14,185 -0.46 -65


Changjiang spot prices on 06/May in Chinese Market
Changjiang Range Change
Copper 46,100-46,140 165
Auminium 13,240-13,280 110
Zinc 17,160-17,240 220
Lead 13,900-14,050 75
Tin 118,500-121,000 3,750
Nickel 104,000-107,200 -100


ellie.wang
Ellie.wang@metalbulletinasia.com

Recent Base Metals News

Editor's pick