Tin is the worst performer this morning, with prices that are down 1.7%, having fallen a similar amount on Thursday. Zinc prices are down 1.4% this morning, lead prices are down 1.2%, nickel prices are down 0.7%, copper prices at $5,704 per tonne are off 0.6% and aluminium is off 0.2% - volume has been above average with 7,795 lots traded as of 06:42 GMT.

Precious metals prices are up 0.3% on average this morning, platinum leads the gains with a 0.6% rise, the rest are up around 0.3% with spot gold prices at $1,207.50 per oz.

In Shanghai this morning, the base metals are down an average of 1.2%, which considering the weakness in LME prices on Thursday and this morning suggests they are holding up quite well. This may be due to better than expected Chinese GDP data that shows growth rebounded slightly to 6.8% from 6.7%. Nickel prices are leading the decline with a 2.8% fall, tin prices are down 1.8%, lead prices are off 1.7%, zinc prices are down 1.2%, March copper is down the least with a 0.6% fall to 46,370 yuan per tonne, while aluminium is bucking the trend with a 0.6% gain. Spot copper in Changjiang is off just 0.4% at 46,410-46,530 yuan per tonne, the spread between spot and the March futures is at an equivalent of $25 per tonne backwardation, while the LME / Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.12.

In other metals in China, iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodities Exchange are down 3.2%, steel rebar prices on the SHFE are down 0.6%, silver prices are down 0.5% and gold prices are off 0.1%. In international markets, spot Brent crude prices are up 0.2% at $54.30 per barrel.

Equities were slightly weaker on Thursday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.1% and the Dow closed down 0.4% at $19,732.4 – so some consolidation ahead of today's US inauguration, but certainly not much – suggesting the markets expect a smooth handover of power. We wait to see how Donald Trump rises to the challenge of being president. In Asian equities this morning, the Nikkei up 0.3%, the Hang Seng is off 0.6%, the CSI 300 is up 0.8%, the ASX 200 is down 0.7% and the Kospi is off 0.4% - we are now in a wait-and-see situation.

In FX, the dollar index is at 100.95 – the recent range has been 103.82-100.27 – we wait to see if the pullback is just consolidation before heading higher, or is a retreat already underway? The euro is firmer at 1.0684, the market seems to have liked UK Theresa May's hard line, the sterling is firmer at 1.2354, the yen is at 114.66 and the Australian dollar is firm at 0.7563, it has rebounded from a low of 0.7158 on December 23. In emerging market currencies, the yuan is mid-range at 6.8719, the recent range has been 6.9633-6.7803, the peso is in low ground, while the other emerging market currencies we follow are consolidating.

Most of today's economic data is already out, China's GDP and retail sales edged higher, while industrial production and fixed asset investment slipped. German PPI edged higher to 0.4% and later we get data on UK retail sales. US Federal Open Market Committee member Patrick Harker is speaking, followed by the new US president’s inauguration speech - see table below for more details.

The base metals are retreating/consolidating, some more than others, with tin and nickel - the less liquid markets - falling the most, while the others are generally consolidating. The market is now likely to wait to see what is said in Trump’s inauguration speech. The potential dangers are either the speech shocks the markets, or the markets end up being disappointed again, in which case we could see some profit-taking set in. In the absence of those developments, the metals remain well placed to continue higher, although with the Chinese Lunar New Year starting a week today, January 27, markets may well quieten down and consolidate further.

Gold has led the precious metals higher this year, in recent days some consolidation has set in. A smooth handover of power, without any shocks, could see some haven trades unwound, although those with haven positions may well decide to hold on to them for a while longer to see what follows. Like most markets, precious metals are now in wait-and-see mode.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

Overnight Performance

GMT

06:42

+/-

+/- %

Lots

Cu

5704

-36

-0.6%

1524

Al

1813.5

-4.5

-0.2%

914

Ni

9840

-70

-0.7%

2364

Zn

2717

-39

-1.4%

2182

Pb

2247

-28

-1.2%

621

Sn

20350

-360

-1.7%

190

 

Average


-1.0%

        7,795

Gold

1207.46

3.46

0.3%

 

Silver

17.024

0.034

0.2%

 

Platinum

959.3

5.3

0.6%

 

Palladium

753.2

2.2

0.3%

 

 

Average PM

 

0.3%

 


SHFE Prices 06:58 GMT

RMB

Change

% Change

Cu

46360

-250

-0.5%

AL

13430

75

0.6%

Zn

22140

-260

-1.2%

Pb

18105

-315

-1.7%

Ni

82710

-2340

-2.8%

Sn

145300

-2680

-1.8%

Average change (base metals)

0

 

-1.2%

Rebar

3241

-21

-0.6%

Iron ore

612.5

-20.5

-3.2%

Au

271.55

-0.15

-0.1%

Ag

4107

-20

-0.5%


Economic Agenda

GMT

Country

Data

Actual

Expected

Previous

1:00am

US

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

 

 

 

2:00am

China

GDP q/y

6.8%

6.7%

6.7%

2:00am

China

Industrial Production y/y

6.0%

6.1%

6.2%

2:00am

China

Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y

8.1%

8.3%

8.3%

2:00am

China

NBS Press Conference

 

 

 

2:00am

China

Retail Sales y/y

10.9%

10.7%

10.8%

7:00am

German

German PPI m/m

0.4%

0.4%

0.3%

Day 4

ALL

WEF Annual Meetings

 

 

 

 9:30am

UK

Retail Sales m/m

 

-0.1%

0.2%

2:00pm

US

FOMC Member Harker Speaks

 

 

 

Tentative

US

President-Elect Trump Speaks