Market reacts to Brazil’s anti-dumping duties on steel imports

Brazil’s government has imposed three anti-dumping measures on steel imports so far in 2026, largely targeting shipments from China and, in one case, from India

Key takeaways:

  • Brazil imposed three anti-dumping measures on steel imports in 2026, primarily targeting Chinese shipments with duties ranging from $284.98 to $709.63 per tonne
  • Market participants are seeking alternative supply sources in Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan following the high duties that effectively halted trade with China
  • Steel imports dropped 22.6% in December 2025, while prices for cold-rolled coil, galvanized coil, and Galvalume increased by $10-30 per tonne week-over-week

Market participants viewed these duties as a long-awaited response to concerns over unfair competition, although some said that the measures have hurt their businesses. Even so, most agreed that alternative supply sources were available, Fastmarkets was told on Tuesday February 24.

“Now the market will be less apprehensive, so to speak. Everyone already knows what level of dumping duty will have to be paid. And now, for sure, it will no longer be viable to import steel from China,” a trader source told Fastmarkets.

“People used to think that Vietnam and South Korea were expensive,” the same source added. “But once you factor-in the dumping duties, Vietnam is now seen as quite competitive.”

So far, anti-dumping duties have been approved for pre-painted steel imported from China and India, for cold-rolled coil imported from China and for coated steel imported from China. The duties ranged at levels between $284.98 and $709.63 per tonne, which was considered very high by the market.

Fastmarkets’ steel price assessments

Fastmarkets’ assessment of the price for steel cold-rolled coil, import, cfr main ports South America, was $610-630 per tonne on February 20, narrowing upward by $20 per tonne from $590-630 per tonne a week earlier.

The corresponding assessment of the price for steel hot-dipped galvanized coil, import, cfr main ports South America, was $660-700 per tonne on Friday, up by $10-30 per tonne from $630-690 per tonne a week before.

And the price assessment for steel coil Galvalume, import, cfr main ports South America, was $770-820 per tonne on Friday, up by $20 per tonne from $750-800 per tonne a week earlier.

The aggressive protective reaction of the Brazilian government initially surprised market participants, since most of them did not expect the measures to be approved – especially at such high levels – because China is Brazil’s main economic partner.

With the duties now in place, however, market participants believed that the separate dumping cases still under investigation were also likely to result in anti-dumping measures.

The remaining Brazilian dumping investigations on steel concerned:

  • Tinplate from Germany, Japan and the Netherlands
  • Hot-rolled flat steel from China
  • Steel wire rod from China and Russia
  • Hot-rolled stainless flat steel from China, India and Indonesia
  • Seamless tube from Ukraine (review), India, Malaysia and Thailand.

In addition to the measures already in force, there were also anti-dumping duties on tinplate from China in place since October 17, 2024, as well as on heavy plate from China, South Africa, South Korea and Ukraine, and on stainless flat steel from China and Taiwan. These were extended and expanded in September 2025, with the duties increased by 200%.

“This is what needed to be done, as we have always said. We are not against imports, only against dumping imports, which forces domestic mills to compete under unfair conditions,” a Brazilian distributor representative said. “We had been waiting for this for a long time. They used the maximum deadline [for the investigations], but in the end they approved them.”

The distributor recalled the recent decline in imports, which it said showed that traders and importers were already anticipating the anti-dumping measures.

Imports of flat steel products dropped significantly in December 2025, to 205,700 tonnes, down by 22.6% from 265,900 tonnes in November. Nevertheless, imports remained considerably higher year on year, rising by 66.6% compared with 123,500 tonnes in December 2024. The figures included heavy plate, hot-rolled, cold-rolled and coated products.

“We are very optimistic about the application of anti-dumping duties on cold-rolled and coated steel products coming from China. We expect this to happen either in January or, at the latest, in February 2026,” Carlos Loureiro, executive president of Brazil’s National Institute of Steel Distributors (INDA), said in January.

The anticipation of the measures also prompted some market participants to seek alternative origins for imported material. Expecting that they would have to choose between China and other suppliers, they began to build business relationships with producers in other countries.

“All of this is linked to the visit we made to Vietnam last year, anticipating what is happening now,” a second trader source said. “The market will start to look for new supply origins. Some companies moved earlier, while others waited because they believed the duty would not be so high – and now they are rushing. This has opened space for Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan and possibly India.”

End of Brazil-China steel relationship?

The general view was that trade between the two countries in the products subject to the duties has effectively come to a halt – at least, for as long as the measures remain in force.

“If Chinese mills tried to absorb the full cost of these duties, it would be impossible,” the distributor source said. “In most cases, the duties are higher than the current value of the material per tonne. That is why importers have already raised prices by almost 1,000 Reais [about $193] per tonne.”

There was also concern that, in some sectors, such as pre-painted steel, the market could come to a complete standstill.

“That is what happened with heavy plate,” a third trader source said. “The market is destroyed. There used to be a heavy plate market in Brazil and, surprisingly, it was driven by imports because market participants were active. When imports ended and local prices remained high, the market collapsed. Other supplying countries then raised prices to levels that made imports impossible.”

Understand current steel price trends and access hundreds of historical steel prices in one place. Find out more about Fastmarkets’ steel prices here.

What to read next
The decision follows a one-month consultation period, which ended on April 6. Please note that Fastmarkets will increase the publication frequency to weekly from what was originally proposed. This frequency change is in line with feedback received during the proposal phase. This frequency change follows changes in Brazil’s import environment, including the introduction of anti-dumping measures […]
Steel markets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are facing a growing supply crisis for steel and raw materials after the month-long regional conflict paralyzed shipping.
The Canada HRC hot-rolled price hovered around the C$55-per-ton threshold as market participants reacted with dismay to new US policies that affect the way tariffs are calculated on derivative metals products.
The European Commission published the first-quarter 2026 Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificate price on Tuesday April 7, applicable to all CBAM-eligible goods imported into the EU in January-March 2026.
Automakers are expected to play a pivotal role in driving early demand for low and near-zero-emissions flat steel in Europe
Decarbonization has become the defining theme for heavy industry. With the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) now in force and mounting pressure to curb emissions, hard-to-abate sectors such as steel are being pushed to adapt to a lower-carbon economy.