Middle East: Middle East conflict pushes PIX GCC testliner, fluting indices higher in March

Conflict in the region is leading to price increases, supply chain issues and uncertainty in the GCC packaging market.

Key takeaways:

  • The Middle East conflict drove March containerboard prices and demand sharply higher across the GCC region.
  • Disrupted shipping routes and rising fuel costs created significant logistical challenges for packaging producers.
  • Saudi Arabia’s containerboard demand surged as import delays shifted orders to local mills.
  • UAE fuel prices jumped 72%, while Saudi prices remained steady despite global oil spikes.

Prices in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region for recycled fiber-based containerboard (RCCM) were mostly up in March due to increased costs caused by the disruptions in the Middle East. Fastmarkets’ PIX indices, which cover locally produced brown testliner and fluting, showed big increases on Tuesday April 7.

Fastmarkets calculated its monthly PIX Testliner GCC index at $482.44 per tonne on Tuesday, up by $20.24 per tonne (4.38%) from $462.20 on March 3.

Fastmarkets calculated its PIX Fluting GCC index at $457.33 per tonne on Tuesday, up by $19.18 per tonne (4.38%) from $438.15 on March 3.

GCC containerboard demand picks up in March amid Middle East conflict

Containerboard demand mostly increased across the GCC region during March due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

In Saudi Arabia, which is the largest market in the GCC region, participants reported seeing increased containerboard demand after the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) following strikes on Iran launched by US and Israeli forces on February 28. The partial closure of the strait has disrupted import or export by sea to the ports on the Persian Gulf.

Some corrugators working with imported RCCM have seen shipments cancelled or delayed. They have instead placed orders from the local containerboard manufacturers, increasing the demand in Saudi Arabia.

“Probably the corrugators who were importing [the majority of their containerboard] are in a panic and that’s maybe why they have placed many orders with [containerboard] mills,” a Saudi-based corrugator told Fastmarkets.

Another Saudi-based corrugator noted that its customers had placed more orders to build stocks during early March, to avoid placing orders later, since they expected rising costs to push prices much higher later in the month.

But a few Saudi-based market contacts did not notice any increase in containerboard demand because their customers were utilizing the stock they had on hand.

In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), containerboard demand also increased during March after ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell nearly to zero by the end of the month.

“Companies who have not been fully buying from us have asked for more materials. Additionally, two companies who had not been buying anything from us have also come to buy from us,” a UAE-based contact told Fastmarkets.

Despite increased demand in the UAE, companies are struggling with import disruptions between the GCC and external markets, according to Emirati contacts.

“The biggest challenge is that we do around 30% of exports and everything is at a standstill. Nothing is moving out. Things are totally chaotic; you have to keep machines running and local orders are coming in. Then we had one week full of rain, which again created more chaos [in transportation],” another UAE-based contact said.

RCP prices stable in Saudi Arabia, down in the UAE

Market participants in Saudi Arabia reported mostly unchanged recovered paper (RCP) prices during March.

“War has not impacted the RCP prices [so far in Saudi Arabia], but we will have to see for next month,” a Saudi Arabia-based corrugator told Fastmarkets.

But one contact said they had noticed a reduction in RCP prices, citing lack of export and high availability in the market.

In the UAE, market participants reported a reduction in RCP prices in the range of $20-25 per tonne, citing the halt in exports, especially to India, which is a significant importer of RCP from the UAE.

Partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz causes major logistical challenges

Iran announced that it would close the Strait of Hormuz in early March following attacks by the US and Israel. Between February 28 and April 2, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency has received 26 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, of which 16 have been attack reports.

But recent developments show that the strait remains partially open and that Tehran has allowed passage for vessels from “friendly countries”, Al Jazeera reported.

The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had a bigger effect on the UAE compared to Saudi Arabia, because the strait is located between Iran, the UAE and Oman, whereas in Saudi Arabia it has been more felt in the Eastern Province. Saudi Arabia still has access to ports on its Red Sea coast.

Nonetheless, it has caused a significant increase in costs across the GCC region. It has created major logistical challenges including largely disabling the use of some major ports in the region and increases in energy cost.

Shipping lines are charging war surcharges in the range of $3,000-3,500 per 40-feet container, market participants have reported, since the partial closure of the strait has caused shipping companies to reroute their vessels. But many of the vessels are stuck at sea waiting to be rerouted and reshipped.

“We have eight containers lost at sea, but we don’t know where. Shipping lines said the vessels are in India, but it is not clear in the system. If they end up charging us more than the price of the products in the vessels, we don’t need it. We will not take it. It will be useless,” a Saudi Arabia-based contact said.

“Several vessels have been rerouted to India and are waiting to be reshipped again and [shipping companies] are threatening to start charging [us] per container, per day, which is not normal. It is not my problem that it’s stuck at sea,” another Saudi Arabia-based contact said.

Increasing freight rates reported by the market participants are supported by Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI).

The WCI started to rise since the start of the conflict in late February, with the index climbing roughly by 20% to $2,287 per 40-foot container on April from $1,899 on February 26.

Larger ports in the region avoided by shipping lines, most vessels rerouted to Jeddah Islamic Port

Bigger ports in the region, like Port of Jebel Ali in the UAE and King Abdulaziz Port, also known as Dammam Port, located in the Eastern Province in Saudi Arabia, are technically operational, though shipping lines avoid them because they would have to pass the Strait of Hormuz to get there.

Many shipping lines prefer to reroute a majority of their vessels destined for the GCC countries to Jeddah Islamic Port in Saudi Arabia, where the goods are cleared out and transported overland by trucks. Some smaller ports in the region were also said to be options. Rerouting tends to create congestion at ports, further delaying deliveries and increasing logistics costs. The demand for trucks has also increased, according to Saudi Arabia-based contacts.

“Transport prices have started to move up and there is a shortage of supply of trucks. [Transport] prices will increase at least by 10%,” a Saudi Arabia-based corrugator told Fastmarkets.

The threat level at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, located between Yemen and Djibouti, has also risen significantly after the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched missile attacks on Israel on March 28. They have also expressed willingness to close the Bab el-Mandab again, preventing commercial shipments from passing through, according to media outlets.

Restrictions on both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandab Strait, two of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, could significantly disrupt the trade flow, according to Alejandro Mata, Fastmarkets’ director of Europe packaging and graphic paper.

Almost 15% of global seaborne trade passes through the Red Sea, according to the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC).

Fuel prices surge globally, UAE up by 72%, Saudi holding steady in March

Because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important shipping routes, with about 20% of global oil and gas shipments needing to take this route in and out of the GCC region, the partial closure has had a big effect on global oil prices, according to multiple media reports.

Global oil prices have spiked, with Brent crude oil futures trades rising by around 35% to around $107 per barrel at 1100 CET April 2 from a spot price of $79 per barrel on March 2.

Despite global oil prices increasing, it has not been reflected in fuel prices in Saudi Arabia, with the current diesel prices only reflecting the 7.8% year-on-year increase that the government implemented at the turn of the year. Whereas in the UAE, where fuel prices are reviewed on a monthly basis, diesel prices increased by approximately 72% from 2.72 AED ($0.74) per liter in March to 4.69 AED per liter in April. Diesel is the main form of fuel for road transportation in the region.

Packaging industry assessing the situation, price increases expected in April

Contacts in the containerboard and corrugated board industry do not think that the full effect of the conflict has been seen in their production yet. Their main challenge is increasing costs across the whole GCC region with prices fluctuating every day. Most reported having stocks to keep them safe for at least a few months.

“In terms of spare parts and of raw material availability, we are still of course reassessing the situation, but we have a good stock at least for 3-4 months,” a Saudi Arabia-based contact said. “If there is any breakdown and spare parts are required from Europe or China, we will expect some delays as [sea ship] transport is not in a good situation right now,” the contact added.

Looking ahead, GCC-based containerboard producers and corrugators are expecting prices to increase in April due to increased costs.

The implementation of the price increases remains to be seen because both containerboard producers and corrugators have to first evaluate the market situation and see how the conflict progresses and make their decisions based on that. But some corrugators have reported receiving already increased prices for April deliveries.

“Everybody is concerned about how to handle and sail through this [war] situation. Nothing [else] matters now,” a UAE-based contact said.

Want deeper insight into containerboard pricing, demand trends and supply risks across the GCC and beyond? Explore the latest market commentary and forward‑looking analysis from Fastmarkets to stay ahead of shifting market dynamics and inform your next commercial decision. Learn more.

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