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Indonesia focus: what is really coming online and where is it going?

Fastmarkets research on Indonesia’s aluminium supply expansion, new capacity, export flows and the structural risks shaping the market.

14-page presentation · Published March 2026 · Presented at Fastmarkets Bauxite & Alumina 2026

Indonesia’s emergence as a major aluminium supply hub is one of the most closely watched stories in the market right now. New refineries and smelters are coming online, investment is accelerating, and the numbers being cited are significant. But the gap between announced capacity and what is actually operational is wide, and the structural constraints are real.

This analysis cuts through the pipeline projections to give you a grounded picture of what is genuinely coming online, where it is going, and what could still get in the way.

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The report gives a practical view of Indonesia’s aluminium expansion, including operational capacity, export flows, risk factors and Fastmarkets’ base case forecast to 2030.

Full inventory of operational Indonesian alumina refineries and primary aluminium smelters, with current output and 2026 capacity targets
Indonesia’s alumina export flows in 2025, broken down by destination market
The 5 structural risks that could slow or derail the expansion
Fastmarkets’ base case forecast for Indonesian primary aluminium output to 2030
Exclusive 10% discount code for Fastmarkets International Aluminium 2026 and International Critical Minerals and Metals Summit Indonesia 2026