Wheat price commentary: US and European futures fall; global trade quiet

US wheat futures and Euronext contracts closed lower on Friday May 29, pressured by technical selling and weakness in crude oil markets. In global cash markets, activity was subdued heading into the weekend, with limited fresh business reported and most prices remaining unchanged.

By 1 pm US Eastern time, the Chicago soft red winter (SRW) July futures contract on the Chicago Board of Trade decreased by 13 cents per bushel (bu), moving down to $6.11 per bu and the September contract moved down by 13.25 cents per bu to $6.23 per bu.

The Kansas hard red winter (HRW) July futures contract fell by 15.75 cents per bu to $6.49 per bu and the September contract moved down by 15.75 cents per bu to $6.61 per bu.

The Minneapolis hard red spring July futures contract decreased by 13.75 cents per bu to $6.63 per bu and the September contract was down by 13.75 cents per bu to $6.88 per bu.

Euronext wheat futures were lower, with September 2026 down by €2.75 per tonne to €207.50 per tonne, while December 2026 was down by €2.75 per tonne to €216 per tonne.

European wheat markets continued to hold firm today, with sellers showing little willingness to soften offers despite outside market pressure. MATIF drifted into the red through the session, weighed down by weaker energy markets, but physical sellers remained largely unmoved in their stance.

Trade flow was notably quiet, with many participants describing a market lacking urgency from either side. One trader remarked that conversations had shifted away from trade altogether and toward weekend plans, underlining just how subdued activity had become heading into the close.

For now, the market feels content to mark time, with limited fresh demand and little appetite among sellers to chase prices lower despite weakness in futures.

French 11% protein wheat was assessed at a discount of €4 per tonne to the September contract for July loading.

Polish 12.5% wheat cargo premiums were assessed at €6 per tonne over the September Euronext wheat contract for July loading.

Baltic FOB 12.5% wheat cargo premiums were assessed at €6 per tonne over the September Euronext wheat contract for July loading.

The German 12.5% FOB wheat APM for July loading was assessed at €6.00 per tonne above the September Euronext contract, reflecting offers of €7.00 per tonne. No data was excluded.

The German 11.5% FOB wheat APM for July loading was assessed at €2.5 per tonne above the September Euronext contract due to a lack of fresh indications. No data was excluded.

In Australia, trade sources said prices could ease amid improved weather conditions, although much will depend on sellers’ willingness to sell, with some potentially prepared to discount while others may hold offers unchanged.

Australian premium white (APW) wheat was heard offered into Vietnam at $313 per tonne for July-August shipment.

This compares with Ukrainian 11.5% wheat, with offers starting at $286 per tonne CFR Vietnam, while indications for 11.5% wheat into Indonesia with two ports of discharge were reported at $290-292 per tonne, with buyers well below those levels, closer to $280 per tonne.

Meanwhile, Russian 12.55 wheat was also shown offered into Vietnam at around $287-289 per tonne CFR for July loading, competing with Ukrainian 11.5% material.

Meanwhile, on the ground in Russia, no changes were seen in FOB price levels, with selling indications for 12.5% wheat remaining at $249-252 per tonne FOB Novorossiysk-Taman-Tuapse (NTT) for June loading.

Domestic prices, coming down

At the same time, domestic prices were said to be slowly coming down, with the indicative CPT Novorossiysk index published by the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) also down by 385 rubles per tonne week on week at 15,833 rubles per tonne. That still looked expensive given the exchange rate and the FOB equivalent, which was around $245-246 per tonne.

Concurrently, the Russian ministry revised up its 2025/26 wheat export forecast by 5 million-6 million tonnes to 50 million tonnes. However, it remains unclear how that target could be achieved, given that Russian wheat exports had reached only around 41-42 million tonnes by May 22, leaving as much as 8 million tonnes to be shipped in June alone, a level widely viewed as unrealistic under current trade conditions.

In Ukraine, 11.5% wheat offers were reported at $238-$241 per tonne FOB Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC) for June loading, against bids at $234 per tonne FOB POC for the same month.

Also July-August loading selling ideas were seen at $238-$243 per tonne FOB POC.

On a delivered basis, selling ideas on a CFR Algeria basis for July loading were reported at $274 per tonne, with no demand seen against it.

Some feed wheat offers for July loading were seen a $237-$238 per tonne FOB POC.

In the EU Black Sea region, offers on an FOB Constanta basis for 12.5% wheat were seen at $247.50-$250.00 per tonne for June loading, against bids at $242-$243 per tonne on the same basis.

New crop buying ideas for 12.5% wheat on a CVB basis were reported at €3-5 per tonne below the September Euronext wheat contract for August-September loading. Some October-loading offers were also seen at €3 per tonne above the September Euronext wheat contract.

Selling ideas for 11.5% wheat on an FOB Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB) basis were reported at $245-$249 per tonne for June-July loading, against bids at $242-$243 per tonne FOB CVB.

Bids for 11.5% wheat on a CVB basis were reported at €4-6 per tonne below the September Euronext wheat contract for August-September loading, against offers for loading in July-August at €2 per tonne above the September Euronext wheat contract. 

Argentine wheat prices were steady on Friday May 29.

Fastmarkets’ assessment of the price of wheat 11.5% FOB Argentina in the Up River hub for June loading was unchanged at $246 per tonne day on day.

Feed barley FOB Argentina for loading in June was assessed $1 per tonne lower at $239 per tonne.

Fastmarkets Agriculture understands the challenges faced by the grains and oilseeds industry due to disruptions in production and logistics. As global demand for food, livestock and machinery continues to rise, these disruptions cause increased opacity and volatility in the market.

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