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Market participants viewed these duties as a long-awaited response to concerns over unfair competition, although some said that the measures have hurt their businesses. Even so, most agreed that alternative supply sources were available, Fastmarkets was told on Tuesday February 24.
“Now the market will be less apprehensive, so to speak. Everyone already knows what level of dumping duty will have to be paid. And now, for sure, it will no longer be viable to import steel from China,” a trader source told Fastmarkets.
“People used to think that Vietnam and South Korea were expensive,” the same source added. “But once you factor-in the dumping duties, Vietnam is now seen as quite competitive.”
So far, anti-dumping duties have been approved for pre-painted steel imported from China and India, for cold-rolled coil imported from China and for coated steel imported from China. The duties ranged at levels between $284.98 and $709.63 per tonne, which was considered very high by the market.
Fastmarkets’ assessment of the price for steel cold-rolled coil, import, cfr main ports South America, was $610-630 per tonne on February 20, narrowing upward by $20 per tonne from $590-630 per tonne a week earlier.
The corresponding assessment of the price for steel hot-dipped galvanized coil, import, cfr main ports South America, was $660-700 per tonne on Friday, up by $10-30 per tonne from $630-690 per tonne a week before.
And the price assessment for steel coil Galvalume, import, cfr main ports South America, was $770-820 per tonne on Friday, up by $20 per tonne from $750-800 per tonne a week earlier.
The aggressive protective reaction of the Brazilian government initially surprised market participants, since most of them did not expect the measures to be approved – especially at such high levels – because China is Brazil’s main economic partner.
With the duties now in place, however, market participants believed that the separate dumping cases still under investigation were also likely to result in anti-dumping measures.
The remaining Brazilian dumping investigations on steel concerned:
In addition to the measures already in force, there were also anti-dumping duties on tinplate from China in place since October 17, 2024, as well as on heavy plate from China, South Africa, South Korea and Ukraine, and on stainless flat steel from China and Taiwan. These were extended and expanded in September 2025, with the duties increased by 200%.
“This is what needed to be done, as we have always said. We are not against imports, only against dumping imports, which forces domestic mills to compete under unfair conditions,” a Brazilian distributor representative said. “We had been waiting for this for a long time. They used the maximum deadline [for the investigations], but in the end they approved them.”
The distributor recalled the recent decline in imports, which it said showed that traders and importers were already anticipating the anti-dumping measures.
Imports of flat steel products dropped significantly in December 2025, to 205,700 tonnes, down by 22.6% from 265,900 tonnes in November. Nevertheless, imports remained considerably higher year on year, rising by 66.6% compared with 123,500 tonnes in December 2024. The figures included heavy plate, hot-rolled, cold-rolled and coated products.
“We are very optimistic about the application of anti-dumping duties on cold-rolled and coated steel products coming from China. We expect this to happen either in January or, at the latest, in February 2026,” Carlos Loureiro, executive president of Brazil’s National Institute of Steel Distributors (INDA), said in January.
The anticipation of the measures also prompted some market participants to seek alternative origins for imported material. Expecting that they would have to choose between China and other suppliers, they began to build business relationships with producers in other countries.
“All of this is linked to the visit we made to Vietnam last year, anticipating what is happening now,” a second trader source said. “The market will start to look for new supply origins. Some companies moved earlier, while others waited because they believed the duty would not be so high – and now they are rushing. This has opened space for Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan and possibly India.”
The general view was that trade between the two countries in the products subject to the duties has effectively come to a halt – at least, for as long as the measures remain in force.
“If Chinese mills tried to absorb the full cost of these duties, it would be impossible,” the distributor source said. “In most cases, the duties are higher than the current value of the material per tonne. That is why importers have already raised prices by almost 1,000 Reais [about $193] per tonne.”
There was also concern that, in some sectors, such as pre-painted steel, the market could come to a complete standstill.
“That is what happened with heavy plate,” a third trader source said. “The market is destroyed. There used to be a heavy plate market in Brazil and, surprisingly, it was driven by imports because market participants were active. When imports ended and local prices remained high, the market collapsed. Other supplying countries then raised prices to levels that made imports impossible.”
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