Soybean price commentary: Futures fall on US tariffs, bearish derived and external markets

Soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were lower on Friday June 5 due to uncertainties around Chinese commitment to buy of US goods and a perfect storm in external and derived markets.

The front-month July CME futures contract fell 8 cents per bushel, or 0.71%, day on day, closing at $11.21 per bu and ending the week on a strong fall of 5.44%.

The US announcement early in the week of a new round of tariffs for around 60 trading partners brought concerns for the market on agreements achieved with China recently. The country was hit with a 12.5% import tax from Chinese goods into the US market.

This comes after a decision in late February from the US Supreme Court revoked all previous tariffs applied by the White House last year. The Trump administration promised to study ways for reimplementing the tariffs.

However, after the US had reached an agreement for China to buy more US soybeans over this and next market-years, this reinstatement of tariffs on China brings uncertainties regarding Chinese retaliation on either more tariffs or by not fulfilling the recent agreement.

The US soybean selling remains weak with 276,852 tonnes sold in the week ended May 28, according to the USDA.

Further, more bearish pressure came out of both external and derived markets, with the US Dollar Index rising by 0.64%, crude oil falling by 2.69% and the July futures for soymeal and soyoil falling by 1.68% and 2.84% respectively.

At origin, Brazilian FOB Paranaguá paper market for July loading rose 14 cents per bu to 80 cents per bu over the July CME futures with trades said to have been concluded under the same terms at 78 cents per bu and 80 cents per bu.

The July-loading Santos FOB premium was 14 cents per bu higher at 83 cents per bu above the CME July futures.

The FOB August premium in Paranaguá paper market hub was 2 cents per bu higher at 85 cents per bu over the CME August futures also with trades said to have been completed under the same terms at 90 cents per bu and 93 cents per bu.

In Santos hub, the August loading basis were 2 cents per bu higher at 90 cents per bu over the August futures contract.

The July-loading FOB premium in Argentina was unchanged at 5 cents per bu below the July futures.

The July-loading FOB premiums in the US Gulf was unchanged at 100 cents per bu, while in the Pacific Northwest hub it was 10 cents per bu lower at 140 cents per bu, both over the July futures contract.

In China, the world’s main destination market, the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s soyoil and soymeal contracts dropped from the previous trading day.

The most-liquid September soyoil contract was down by 0.69% to close at 8,440 yuan ($1,246) per tonne, and the corresponding soymeal contract dropped by 0.85% to close at  2,918 yuan per tonne.

Soymeal sales in China’s cash market were reported at 670,000 tonnes on Friday.

A trade for a July-loading shipment of Brazilian soybean was concluded at a premium of 195 cents per bu over July CME futures. A trade for an August shipment of Brazilian soybean was concluded at a premium of 210 cents per bu over July CME futures on Thursday overnight.

The July soybean CFR China (Brazil) premium was assessed at 195 cents per bu over July CME futures, 10 cents per bu higher from the previous assessment and equivalent to an overall price of $486.75 per tonne.

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