Toyota’s $3.6 bln expansion in Texas to shift steel, auto parts demand to US from Mexico: analysts

Toyota’s $3.6 billion investment to build a new assembly line in San Antonio, Texas, will shift demand for US steel and auto parts from Mexico to the US, according to market analysts.

Key takeaways:

  • Toyota will double production capacity at its Texas campus by 2030 and move Tacoma assembly from Mexico to the US.
  • The shift is expected to strengthen regional steel and component supply chains around San Antonio while increasing demand for locally sourced materials.
  • USMCA uncertainty and tariff risks are accelerating reshoring decisions, with metals demand likely shifting from Mexico to the US rather than increasing overall.

Toyota expands Texas production as Tacoma assembly shifts from Mexico

Toyota Motor North America announced Monday July 6 that it plans to add 2.5 million square feet of assembly line production by 2030 at its Texas campus, doubling its capacity.

The new assembly line will support production of the Toyota Tacoma, a midsize pickup truck, shifting production of the model to the US from Mexico, where it is currently assembled in Tijuana, just south of the US border.

“Over the next four years, Toyota will need to strengthen its local supply chain around San Antonio,” Sam Fiorani, vice president, global vehicle forecasting, AutoForecast Solutions LLC, Chester Springs, Pennsylvania, said. “Moving Tijuana production to Texas will likely double its need for steel, and the local supplier likely does not have that capacity today.”

The Toyota Texas facility currently supports assembly of the Toyota Tundra, a full-size pickup truck and the Toyota Sequoia, a full-size sport utility vehicle (SUV).

“Relocating the sourcing of components from Mexico to the US will strengthen suppliers that are already providing components for the Sequoia and Tundra, many of which are already part of the larger Toyota family,” Fiorani added.

“As much as 40% of the components for the Mexican-built Tacoma, including engines, are already sourced from US suppliers and will very likely continue that way when the factory in Texas is operational,” Fiorani said.

Increased production and parts integration in Texas

Toyota assembled more than 197,000 vehicles in 2025 at its San Antonio facility.

A new rear axle plant at the San Antonio campus is expected to start up in September and will be able to supply its parts directly to Texas assembly lines, the company stated.

“Toyota’s investment makes sense given the wide uncertainty around the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) and tariff policies. This may or may not increase total metals usage but shift it from Mexico to the USA,” professor Arthur Wheaton, director of labor studies at Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations in Buffalo, New York, said.

“Most of these trucks end up in the USA anyway, build them where you sell them, is a long-time strategy for many companies,” Wheaton said.

“Even if the labor costs are higher in Texas, the uncertainty of border crossing, USMCA, tariffs and politics makes this decision reasonable. It also wins political points by shifting from Mexico to Texas to the USA,” the Cornell professor said.

Metals demand likely to shift rather than grow

“Total impact on the metals industry is a likely transition of suppliers from Mexico to Texas to support the new production line,” Wheaton said. “It will lower metals usage in Mexico once the older plant is phased out.”

“We are so proud of Team Texas and what they have accomplished over the past two decades,” Frank Voss, group vice president of truck manufacturing, Toyota Motor North America, and president of Toyota Texas, said.

“The 2,000 acres of South Texas ranch land our plant stands on today was purposefully selected for its ability to scale with vehicle demand, and today marks the first step toward realizing that potential,” Voss said.

Toyota broke ground for the first assembly line plant at the San Antonio site in 2003.

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