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Around a month ago, trade sources reported that the Russian government had introduced a policy under which vessels could be denied entry to Russian ports if they had called at Ukrainian or European ports within their previous ten voyages.
Initially, the move was seen as a sign that less tonnage would be available in Russia. A few weeks later, however, market sources began expressing concerns that some shipowners could shift toward Russian ports, given the more stable cargo flow and generally higher volumes there.
“We clearly have fewer parties for large ships (Supras), and if Russia bans them after entering Ukraine, then they’ll only look there,” a freight broker source said.
“Yes, that’s the case. It has become more difficult to find Handysize vessels. If larger volumes of Ukrainian cargoes appear, freight rates could spike,” a second source said, adding that the situation potentially might affect smaller tonnages, like Coaster and Handysize vessels.
In terms of EU ports, while there were not many details regarding this policy issue, market sources understood that it mainly affects the Black Sea EU countries, such as Bulgaria and Romania.
At the same time, those for now remained the only concerns, with a lack of physical change seen in the market and some of the industry experts viewing the situation less pessimistically.
According to Ukraine-based freight analytics agency International Seaborne Market (ISM), since the start of 2025, Ukrainian ports have recorded over 2,500 grain-loading port calls involving 968 vessels, while Russian Black Sea ports (excluding Azov) saw nearly 2,000 calls by 730 vessels.
ISM estimates that 157 ships have called at both Ukrainian and Russian ports at least once, with nearly 70% of them in the Handysize/Handymax segment. The overlapping fleet also includes fewer than 10 Coasters/Minibulkers, 27 Panamaxes and around 20 Supramax/Ultramax vessels.
Fewer than 50 ships have called at ports in both countries two or more times over the past 14 months, accounting for less than 5% of the fleet transporting Ukrainian grain.
“Even if we assume that 80-90% of owners previously working on “both sides” decide to operate exclusively from Russian ports, this would not significantly reduce the fleet available to charterers of Ukrainian grain, particularly in the coaster/minibulker and Supramax/Ultramax segments,” ISM commented.
Any meaningful effect would likely be limited to the Handysize segment, where more than 30 vessels had, until recently, been operating regularly from ports in both countries.
“However, at this stage, we do not see a trend suggesting that the majority of Handysize owners will shift their focus exclusively to Russian ports,” ISM agency said.
In terms of agricultural goods shipments, the Russian grain export forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year stands at 53-55 million tonnes, out of which almost 40 million tonnes were already exported during the July-February period.
For Ukraine, export of agricultural commodities is expected to be at around 49 million tonnes, but the logistical issues amid consistent attacks seen for the last several months have been slowing down exports; thus, it is unlikely that the target will be reached.
As of February 23, Ukrainian grain export has reached 20.8 million tonnes, which is well below the five-year average for the July-February period which stands at 32.9 million tonnes.
Still, trade sources hope that starting from March-April, the logistical situation might improve, which allows the market to accelerate trade.
Fastmarkets Agriculture understands the challenges faced by the grains and oilseeds industry due to disruptions in production and logistics. As global demand for food, livestock and machinery continues to rise, these disruptions cause increased opacity and volatility in the market.