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Expectations for the US April ferrous scrap trade have softened slightly, with market participants pointing to broadly stable conditions but a mild downside bias in pricing.
The Trend Indicator posted 46.9 for April, below the neutral 50 threshold and consistent with the Outlook’s forecast for a 3.1% month-on-month decline in scrap prices. This follows a flat prior month, with previous scrap prices unchanged.
Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for April or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.
Consensus registered at 47.0, the lowest level recorded ever, indicating very low agreement among respondents on where the market is heading next.
Buy-side sentiment was the weakest among surveyed groups, with buyers posting a Trend Indicator reading of 40.7, while brokers and sellers were both neutral at 50.0. This suggests consumers are more cautious on near-term pricing than the selling side, which appears to expect little change in underlying conditions.
Buy-side sentiment was the weakest among surveyed groups, with buyers posting a Trend Indicator reading of 40.7 Survey participant
Buy-side sentiment was the weakest among surveyed groups, with buyers posting a Trend Indicator reading of 40.7
Survey participant
Inventory was assessed at 49.0, pointing to stock levels close to normal and not indicating a major supply-side imbalance. In line with that, the most common market driver response was “All Unchanged,” reinforcing the view that neither supply nor demand is expected to shift materially in April.
Overall, the market appears balanced, but the slightly bearish sentiment, especially from buyers, suggests scrap prices may come under modest pressure in April rather than move sideways. However, the extremely low Consensus shows that there is huge uncertainty.