US scrap trends outlook: March 2026

Here are the key takeaways from market participants on US ferrous scrap metal prices, market confidence, inventory and more from our March survey

US ferrous scrap market expected to soften slightly in March after strong February gains

Expectations for the US ferrous scrap market point to a modest pullback in March following a strong February trade which posted an average increase of 7.5% month-on-month. Market sentiment remains moderately positive with the Trend Indicator registering 55.2, suggesting that while the market is still supported, upward momentum has weakened. Nonetheless, the Outlook’s prediction model actually points to an average month-on-month decrease of 1.5% in March.

Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for March or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.

Diverging market sentiments highlight varied pricing expectations

Survey responses indicate a clear divergence in sentiment across market participants. Brokers remain the most optimistic with a Trend Indicator reading of 75.0, suggesting expectations of stronger pricing conditions. Sellers are more neutral with a reading of 51.6, while buyers are notably bearish at 38.9, indicating that mills are anticipating some easing in scrap values after February’s increases.

Brokers remain the most optimistic with a Trend Indicator reading of 75.0

Survey participant

Steady inventory levels and balanced market sentiment

Inventory levels are estimated slightly above normal with a reading of 53.1, suggesting that mills are generally well supplied heading into the March trade. This inventory position may limit the urgency for aggressive purchasing in the near term.

Participants largely indicated that no single factor is expected to dominate the market direction in March, with the most common response pointing to overall conditions remaining broadly unchanged. This aligns with the relatively balanced sentiment captured in the survey results.

What to read next
US trade union United Auto Workers and the Dauch Corporation, formerly known as American Axle, reached a tentative agreement on Wednesday June 10 that could restore the loss in demand for automotive steel resulting from a workers’ strike.
Ford’s launch of Ford Energy reflects a clear strategic reset rather than simple diversification. The company is responding to a widening gap between earlier EV assumptions and current market reality, where demand growth has slowed, subsidy support has become less reliable, and large-scale battery investments are now underutilized.
The sharp rise in demand for lithium is outpacing the growth of an independent US supply chain, Ian Rodger, chief executive officer of lithium development company US Elemental, told Fastmarkets in an exclusive interview on Wednesday June 3.
Lack of standardisation, certifications and market practises is creating growing uncertainty across green steel markets, with implications for pricing, procurement and credibility.
The Trump administration has concluded its investigation against Brazil under Section 301, with the country’s Trade Representative Jamieson Greer proposing a 25% tariff on the South American country’s imports but putting forth a list of exempted items.
A United Auto Workers (UAW) strike at the American Axle factory in Three Rivers, Michigan, that began on Monday June 1 could lead to reduced demand for automotive steel if not resolved quickly, but analysts disagree on whether it will ultimately have a significant impact.