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Carbon costs are now priced into steel through CBAM and EU ETS. The green premium is not following the same path. This second flagship Scenario Labs session examines when a green premium can hold above the carbon-adjusted price and when it is absorbed into a rising base. We bring the cost and trade-flow modelling that producers, buyers and procurement teams need to plan capital and sourcing decisions through 2030.
What you will take away from Scenario Labs Episode 2:
Where CBAM and EU ETS create margin headroom for European producers, and where a green premium can be sustained
How carbon costs fall differently on EU production and on imported tonnes
How much of CBAM cost actually reaches buyers, and who absorbs the rest
How the balance between EAF and BF-BOF shifts as carbon pricing takes effect, and who stands to gain share
A sector view of where green steel demand holds under different EU ETS scenarios
Cross-industry perspectives from producers, buyers and independent advisors on where the green premium holds and where it gives way
Register to join Scenario Labs 2
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