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Key takeaways:
Cash markets in the week up to Friday October 10 saw Saudi Arabia’s General Food Security Authority (GFSA) buying 455,000 tonnes of 12.5% milling wheat in a tender, paying an average $263.68 per tonne CFR.
The wheat, mostly from Europe and the Black Sea, includes seven 65,000-tonne cargoes for December-January delivery. For December 1-15, two cargoes from Solaris were $263.36 per tonne CFR and one from Cargill was $265.39 per tonne CFR. For later shipments, Cargill and Bunge sold 65,000-tonne cargoes at $262.79-264.11 per tonne CFR.
The Tunisian state grain importer, the Office des Céréales (ODC), has issued an international tender to purchase 100,000 tonnes of wheat from optional origins with a shipment window of November 5-December 15, with results yet unknown by the time of publication.
Jordan’s Ministry of Industry, Trade and Supply passed on the purchase of barley in its tender, with the next one scheduled for the coming week, with the shopping period in January-February.
Apart from that, it was also heard that a Philippines’ private buyer was in the market for December through February shipment feed wheat within a tender closed October 9, but no result was yet announced.
In terms of price movements, Fastmarkets’ Australian premium white wheat (APW) assessment was steady at $255 per tonne for November loading, while Australian standard white (ASW) was unchanged at $247 per tonne FOB Western Australia.
Trade sources said that amid dry weather in Victoria, parts of the eastern states and South Australia, trade is keeping export prices firm, until they are sure the crop is going to be fine, as expected earlier. While in Western Australia, even with conditions remaining favorable, prices have not yet shown any significant decline in the last few weeks.
In the Black Sea region, prices showed only slight changes as well.
Fastmarkets’ assessment for Russian 12.5% wheat went down by $1 per tonne to $231 per tonne FOB for November shipment, along with 11.5% wheat, which was also assessed down by $2 per tonne at $228 per tonne FOB.
The price assessment for Ukrainian 11.5% wheat declined by $0.50 per tonne to $228.50 per tonne for November loading.
Feed wheat prices were assessed at $217 per tonne FOB Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC), which is unchanged since the beginning of the week.
In both countries, trade sources were reporting slow liquidity; one of the factors still supporting prices, apart from remaining buying interest and firm freight, was domestic prices being firm.
In Europe, wheat FOB cargo values for November loading dates were broadly lower in outright terms.
Prices were down for the week, with both Baltic and Polish FOB 12.5% wheat cargoes falling by $1.25 per tonne to $226.75 per tonne, while offers for November loading were steady around €6-7 per tonne above the December Euronext wheat contract.
German FOB 12.5% wheat was lower, down by $1.25 per tonne to $228 per tonne, while no trades were reported. German market participants said farmer retention remains high in the country limiting FOB availability.
French 11% wheat cargoes were slightly higher, up $2.25 per tonne on the week at $226.25 per tonne, with offers little changed at €3-4 per tonne above the December Euronext wheat contract for November loading dates.
In the European Black Sea region, FOB Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB) 11.5% wheat was lower on the week, down by $1.75 per tonne to $231 per tonne, while FOB CVB 12.5% wheat was slightly higher on the week, up by $1.25 per tonne to $235.75 per tonne.
In North America, prices were mixed as US Gulf hard red winter (HRW) wheat rose, while soft red winter (SRW) wheat and Canada western red spring (CWRS) wheat declined, and Pacific Northwest (PNW) soft white (SW) wheat was unchanged.
The overall price for FOB US Gulf HRW 11% wheat climbed by $3.00 per tonne on October 3 to $226.25 per tonne on Thursday October 9.
Meanwhile, the FOB US Gulf SRW 10.5% wheat price fell by $3.00 per tonne to $227.00 per tonne, FOB CWRS 13.5% wheat price slipped by $1.25 per tonne to $248.75 per tonne, while FOB US PNW SW 10% wheat price was unchanged at $231.00 per tonne.
Chicago SRW, Kansas HRW and Minneapolis hard red spring (HRS) wheat futures decreased as market participants focused on ample global wheat stockpiles and robust production estimates.
The USDA and other US government agencies have canceled the issuance of most reports for the duration of the government shutdown, which began on October 1. The November edition of the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which was originally scheduled for October 9, was among the reports that has been delayed indefinitely.
Weekly export inspections data were one of the few data points to have been released by the USDA this week. Export inspections of US wheat decreased by 42% to 505,096 tonnes during the week to September 25 from 873,578 tonnes the previous week, according to data from the USDA released on Monday October 6.
In Canada, durum prices were unchanged, with FOB Vancouver 14.5% wheat cargos at $270 per tonne, while St Lawrence cargos stood at $280 per tonne.
Canadian wheat exports totaled 420,900 tonnes in the week ending October 5, down 50% from 841,500 tonnes the prior week, a marketing-year high. Despite the decline, cumulative wheat exports stood at 3.57 million tonnes, up by 412,800 tonnes (13%) compared with the same point last year.
Durum wheat exports rose to 108,000 tonnes, up from 43,900 tonnes a week earlier. Year-to-date durum exports reached 467,100 tonnes, up 8% from a year earlier.
In Argentina, 11.5% FOB Up River wheat declined by $4 per tonne to $214 per tonne.
US corn prices remained overall steady over the week, with light trade reported as global activity slowed during China’s National Day holiday.
FOB Gulf prices remained steady at $198.50 per tonne, while FOB PNW prices softened by $0.25 per tonne to $206.75 per tonne.
US farmer sentiment held mostly steady in September, though producers reported weaker current conditions as low commodity prices weighed on outlooks, according to the Purdue University and CME Group’s Ag Economy Barometer released on Tuesday October 7.
US ethanol production increased by 76,000 barrels per day to 1.07 million bpd in the week to October 3, and stocks eased by 44,000 barrels on the week to 22.72 million barrels, according to data published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday October 8.
In South America, market values trended higher. Brazil’s FOB Santos corn prices added $0.75 per tonne from October 3 to $209.50 per tonne on Thursday.
Brazil exported 6.42 million tonnes of corn in September last year, customs data showed on Monday. The daily export pace averaged 343,776 tonnes in September, up from 305,807 tonnes a year earlier.
Argentina’s corn prices rose by $1.50 per tonne to $203.50 per tonne during the period. Planting progress advanced 5.8 percentage points over the week, reaching 25.6% of the estimated 7.8 million hectares nationwide – up 7.9 points from a year earlier and marking the second-fastest pace in the past decade, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE).
In Ukraine, corn prices remained generally stable throughout the week. Although there was a slight decline midweek, prices returned to their initial levels by the end of the week.
The assessment for Ukrainian corn on an FOB Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC) basis only dropped by 50 cents by the end of the week to $214 per tonne, while the domestic price also only dropped by $1 per tonne to $205 per tonne, but there is an expectation that it can get firmer again, given that there are more contracts in October to be secured, while harvest progress is still relatively slow.
Ukraine-origin corn is priced out of most of the key destinations currently, with US and Brazil origins seen the most competitive into Spain, Egypt and Vietnam.
Soybean cash markets remained mostly quiet over the week, with China off on its week-long Golden Week holiday until Wednesday.
On Thursday and Friday, the Asian country returned to the market, booking between eight and 12 South American cargoes.
Fastmarkets tracked at least six Brazilian cargoes snapped for loading in November and December with premiums ranging from $2.75 to $2.85 cents per bushel over November Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures.
Between two and four Argentine cargoes were also reported booked for November and May loading.
Chinese demand for US soybeans remained muted amid the cross-border tariffs, with basis premiums at places without processing capacity at historically low levels.
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