Impact of E-commerce on North American Paper Packaging Markets

Will paper packaging demand keep booming along with online retail growth, or will the "e-commerce boost" weaken in coming years? This study – the first of its kind available from any source – is an exhaustive analysis of how North American e-commerce shapes the corrugated packaging space.

The e-commerce/mail order retail sector uses 7 times as many boxes per dollar spent, compared to traditional brick-and-mortar retail logistics. But even as e-commerce spending keeps rising, containerboard demand growth slowed in the first half of 2019. Should the containerboard industry prepare for a weaker “e-commerce boost” going forward?

Prepare for any contingency with the Impact of E-commerce on North American Paper Packaging Markets. This first-ever study of this timely topic provides:

Essentials about e-commerce’s impact on corrugated packaging

  • Detailed breakouts of spending by merchandise type
  • Historical data showing impact on North American containerboard and corrugated box markets, broken out into retail and wholesale
  • E-commerce market statistics that are most relevant for packaging

27 risk scenarios to help model the future of the market

  • Forecasts of e-commerce for both the US and Canada, modeling three different scenarios for the evolution of three key variables:
    • Economic conditions
    • E-commerce/mail order share of relevant retail spending
    • Correlation of e-commerce and packaging demand
      • Along with presenting three different scenarios for each of these factors, the Impact of E-commerce on North American Paper Packaging Markets supports comparative analysis among them. This enables the analysis of 27 different risk scenarios for the future of the containerboard market in North America – a powerful analytical tool that can’t be found anywhere else.

E-commerce giants are working to use less corrugatedThe intensity of box usage per dollar of retail spending has increased in recent years, mostly due to the growth of e-commerce. However, this relationship – of growing online sales supporting growing box-usage intensity – is likely to deteriorate going forward.

Slowing growth, alternative packaging materials, and other threatsCurrent trends that threaten containerboard demand growth include:

  • Overbox reduction
  • Primary packaging redesign
  • On-site custom box conversion
  • Corrugated alternatives such as plastic mailers
  • Retail store fulfillment

The Impact of E-commerce on North American Paper Packaging Markets provides expert evaluation of these trends – backed by the most exhaustive data and analysis available from any source.

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What’s happening in the forest products market today?

Packaging Corp of America (PCA) is set to raise linerboard and corrugating medium prices by $70 per ton starting March 1, marking the first containerboard price increase in 13 months.

In today’s market, effective food and beverage procurement is critical for profitability. However, many procurement teams face challenges due to fragmented data, where packaging and ingredient costs are managed in separate silos. This disconnect creates a massive blind spot, making it difficult to challenge supplier price hikes or accurately model total product costs.

The publication of Fastmarkets’ France Cartonboard averages for October 2025 were delayed because of a procedural error. Fastmarkets’ pricing database has been updated.

US recovered fiber prices and demand remained stable through January as buyers fortified inventories ahead of a projected February generation drop. Leading containerboard producers report healthy to heavy raw material levels, especially for old corrugated containers (OCC), ensuring optimal supply despite anticipated seasonal shifts.

Fastmarkets hosted a pivotal discussion recently on the state of the global pulp and paper market. While the calendar pages have turned, the realities outlined during that session have only crystallized further. The pulp industry remains in a precarious balance where supply-side mechanics – rather than surging demand – are dictating the tempo of the market.

As previously announced, Fastmarkets has discontinued its legacy assessments for bleached and unbleached European sack kraft as of January 22 2026.

Following a market consultation, Fastmarkets launched European average prices for bleached and unbleached sack kraft with effect from January 22 2026 to complement our existing country-specific sack kraft assessments.

US pulp spot markets saw steady movement to start the year, with bleached softwood kraft (BSK) stabilizing and bleached hardwood kraft (BHK) showing improvement. Northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) prices held at $700-730 per tonne, unchanged since December, according to Fastmarkets’ latest survey.

As the Nordic and North American timber sectors grapple with sweeping operational changes, mounting trade pressures, and subdued market demand, industry leaders are pivoting strategies to preserve resilience.

Fastmarkets has corrected its prices of recovered paper, corrugated grades, old corrugated containers, imports from Japan, cif Southeast Asia, $ per tonne, which were published incorrectly on Friday January 16 owing to a typographical error.