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China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Report outlines an economy-wide goal to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 7-10% from their peak level by 2035.
The target marks a key step in China’s path toward carbon neutrality before 2060 and confirms the government’s intention to rely more heavily on market-based instruments to meet its climate goals.
Under the plan, the ETS will expand beyond the power sector to cover steel, cement, aluminium and other high-emission industries. It will gradually introduce paid allocations and new trading instruments, alongside a dual-control system that manages both total and intensity-based emissions. The document says China aims to build a “more effective, dynamic and internationally influential carbon market” by 2035.
The NDC also commits to strengthening the legal framework for climate governance, with new and revised laws on energy, renewables and circular economy management. The voluntary carbon market will continue to develop in parallel with the compliance system to support projects that deliver environmental and socio-economic co-benefits.
Energy transition targets remain central to the 2035 plan. Non-fossil fuels are expected to supply more than 30% of total energy consumption by 2035, with wind and solar capacity rising sixfold from 2020 levels to around 3.6 terawatts (TW). Forest stock volume will exceed 24 billion cubic meters, and new-energy vehicles will make up the majority of new car sales.
The plan’s modelling draws on national GHG inventory data and IPCC-aligned assessment tools covering all major gases and sectors. The government describes the updated NDC as reflecting China’s “highest possible ambition” under the Paris Agreement.
For non-CO2 gases, the plan targets a 30% reduction in hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production and consumption from baseline levels and an 85% utilization rate for livestock waste. Methane and nitrous oxide management will be strengthened across energy, agriculture and waste sectors with new measurement, reporting and verification standards.
Carbon sinks remain a foundation of China’s mitigation approach.
Forest coverage is set to rise above 26%, soil and water conservation rates to 75%, and ecological redlines will continue to protect at least 3.15 million square kilometers of land.
Adaptation measures focus on disaster prevention, water and agricultural resilience, and climate-proofing infrastructure under the National Climate Adaptation Strategy 2035, which aims to make China a climate-resilient society by mid-decade.
The NDC also details plans to expand carbon-measurement centers, standardize product-level carbon footprints and publish annual GHG inventories. Financing will be supported through green and transition bonds, investment funds and fiscal policies aligned with national carbon goals.
On the international front, China reaffirmed its commitment to the Paris Agreement’s multilateral framework and called on developed nations to reach net zero “well before 2050” while providing predictable climate finance and technology transfer.
Beijing said it has mobilized 177 billion yuan ($24.84 billion) since 2016 to support 42 developing countries through 54 South–South cooperation agreements, including low-carbon demonstration zones and training programs.
The report also opposes “unilateralism, protectionism and politicization” in global climate policy and highlights cooperation under global and regional platforms such as the G20, BRICS and the Belt and Road Initiative, which support economic, infrastructure and climate collaboration.
Annexes to the submission outline climate goals for Hong Kong and Macau. Hong Kong aims to cut emissions 50% from 2005 levels by 2035 and reach carbon neutrality by 2050, while Macau plans to peak emissions by 2030 and reduce total GHGs by at least 5% by 2035 compared with 2030 levels. Both intend to achieve 100% zero-emission new vehicle sales by 2035.
The 2035 NDC signals China’s pivot toward quantifiable, economy-wide emissions-level targets and deeper reliance on market instruments. The planned expansion of the ETS and adoption of absolute carbon limits are expected to strengthen the role of carbon trading in meeting national decarbonization objectives and shape China’s engagement in global climate cooperation.
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