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“The International Zinc Study Group projects a slight surplus for this year. However, this surplus may or may not materialize depending on one key driver, which is the operating rates of Chinese smelters,” Cammarosano said.
Zinc concentrate supply increased in 2025, with higher output from the Aripuanã mine in Brazil, the Kipushi mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Ozernoye operation in Russia, but the additional volume was still insufficient to shift overall market conditions, according to Cammarosano.
“[But] this new volume entering the market has not been enough to offset production disruptions, which have become increasingly frequent due to extreme weather events, community blockages and logistical issues,” he said.
Chinese smelters had already acted in 2024, taking measures that reshaped the treatment charge (TC) environment, Cammarosano said.
“There was a coordinated move by a group of major Chinese smelters to intentionally reduce their operating rates last year in response to historically low treatment charges, which helped push TCs back to more reasonable levels,” Cammarosano said.
On August 30, 2024, Fastmarkets assessed zinc spot concentrate TC, cif China, at $(50)-(20) per tonne, marking a record low. The spot zinc treatment charge in China started to increase on December 13, 2024, reaching a positive price on February 14, when it was assessed at $0-30 per tonne.
On Monday November 24, Fastmarkets’ assessment for zinc spot concentrate TC, cif China was at $70-100 per tonne.
Zinc prices on the LME stood at $3,187.40 per tonne on a cash-ask basis and $3,038.38 per tonne for the three-month contract on Thursday November 27. Cammarosano said the current pricing environment reflected the market’s fundamentals.
“We have seen prices performing in this area since late September, and the fundamentals at the start of the year were already pointing to this kind of scenario for 2025,” he said.
A significant share of global zinc consumption is linked to galvanization, which supports key sectors such as construction, infrastructure, mobility and energy.
Cammarosano highlighted that zinc also has growing applications in renewable energy generation, where galvanized structures play a relevant role.
He noted that zinc’s relevance comes from its ability to protect steel components and extend the durability of large-scale projects.
“A large part of renewable energy projects are intensive in base metals and steel, and zinc contributes by protecting the metallic structure and improving the durability of the project,” Cammarosano said.
He said that solar and wind installations rely heavily on galvanized steel.
“When you look at solar farms, you don’t need the structure to be light, you need it to be cheap, large and protected against weather exposure. That is galvanized steel,” he said.
Cammarosano added that corrosion protection is even more critical in offshore wind generation.
“Those structures either sit near the sea or in the sea itself, and they must be protected against corrosion. They will take galvanized steel for some applications or thermal coatings that use zinc,” he said.
He also highlighted emerging uses of zinc in new metallic alloys and stationary energy-storage technologies.
“We have seen large applications of zinc-air and zinc-magnesium stationary batteries performing well,” he said. “We think this is a good path to support future zinc demand.”
Brazil’s zinc demand has been supported mainly by galvanization, with construction, infrastructure, energy and mobility remaining the core downstream sectors, according to Cammarosano.
“The consumption of galvanized steel in Brazil has been pressured by a more challenging macroeconomic environment, including higher interest rates,” he said, adding that rising imports of galvanized steel and finished goods containing galvanized components have also affected perceived domestic demand.
Even so, structural drivers linked to construction and infrastructure continue to play a central role.
“Energy projects, both in generation and distribution, remain important demand drivers,” Cammarosano said.
The automotive sector has shown signs of improvement, although part of the recovery has been diluted by imported vehicles.
“Domestic vehicle production should see a slight increase, and with greater use of galvanized sheets in this segment, zinc consumption also increases,” he said.
“But imports of finished vehicles, particularly from China, limit part of this recovery,” he added.
Zinc oxide also remains an important outlet for refined zinc in Brazil, with steady demand across chemical, industrial and agricultural applications.
According to Cammarosano, the agricultural segment in particular has shown consistent consumption, helping sustain overall demand for zinc oxide despite the broader economic slowdown.
Nexa operates an integrated zinc chain in Latin America, combining its mining operations with downstream smelting capacity to supply customers across the region. This structure gives the company visibility over both concentrate availability and refined metal demand.
“With our current level of integration around 50–55%, and the potential to reach 60–65% once Aripuanã is at full capacity and our life-extension project at Pasco is in place, we will be able to capture even more value from this structure, resulting in a more resilient model overall,” Cammarosano said.
He said this setup enables Nexa to manage fluctuations in treatment charges between mines and smelters.
“When treatment charges are very low, more of the value stays with the mine, and when TCs move back up, more margin shifts to the smelter,” he said.
Aripuanã remains central to Nexa’s expected growth in zinc concentrate output, with higher production already planned for 2026 and 2027 as part of the mine’s ongoing ramp-up.
“The new filter is already on site and should be commissioned in the first half of next year, allowing Aripuanã to reach a higher production level in the second half of 2026 and operate at full capacity for the full year in 2027,” Cammarosano said.
Cammarosano also referred to decarbonization efforts, highlighting a power mix that relies mainly on renewable energy sources.
The company has equity stakes in hydro and small hydropower plants and long-term renewable contracts for Cajamarquilla, Peru.
“Zinc produced at Cajamarquilla has a carbon intensity of around 0.78 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per tonne of zinc, compared with a global average of about 3.5 tonnes,” Cammarosano said.
“At Três Marias, the intensity is around 1.5 tonnes per tonne of zinc, which is less than half the global average, according to data from the International Zinc Association,” he added.
Zinc is rapidly gaining significance in the global economy, becoming a cornerstone in various industries due to its remarkable properties. Access market-reflective zinc prices from Fastmarkets.