CORSIA spot prices continue to slide, all eyes still on supply

Fastmarkets assessed CORSIA Phase 1 (CP1) prices at $19 per tonne carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) on Wednesday, down from $19.40 per tCO2e the previous week.

This is the sixth consecutive week Fastmarkets’ CP1 assessment has dropped, primarily owing to increased supply in the market.

The tide began to turn after Hestian’s Malawi cookstove project (GS 11677) was tagged as CP1-eligible on the Gold Standard (GS) registry in early November, bringing 1.5 million tCO2e into the market. Just over 180,000 tCO2e of credits from Burn’s GS Tanzania cookstove project were also tagged as eligible in December.

Prior to this, CP1 spot prices held firm at high levels throughout much of 2025, when only one project – Guyana ART Trees (ART 102) – was tagged as CP1-eligible. But now, improved supply has gradually prompted prices to move downward.

This trend has been exacerbated recently as participants expect even more CP1-eligible supply to enter the market in due course.

For instance, participants have been closely watching Laos after it submitted its Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) to the UN in early January. This could see a combined 5.83 million tCO2e of vintage 2023-2024 credits become CORSIA-eligible; however, they are yet to be tagged on registry.

Cookstove projects in Rwanda, Gambia and Tanzania that have a letter of authorization (LoA) and insurance are also at the forefront; however, these are also encountering tagging delays.

Sources are also closely monitoring impending supply from the now approved VMR0006 methodology for cookstoves.

The marginal cost per stove for these credits is on an average over 40% lower than other updated methodologies like VM0050.

This is because VMR006 applies dated baseline, ex-ante parameters and stove use monitoring practices. The inclusion of VMR0006 in CORSIA-eligible units has effectively opened the market to significantly cheaper supply.

However, jurisdictional approval and the nascent insurance landscape continue to temper the supply at the moment from glutting the market.

Elsewhere, CP1 futures contracts have also come under pressure in recent days, as improved supply affects sentiment.

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) CP1 December 2026 contract traded at $16 per tCO2e for around 50,000 tCO2e last week. This was followed by a trade at $14.50 per tCO2e for smaller volumes on Monday and another trade at $14.75 per tCO2e on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Climate Impact X’s CP1 spot contract saw offers fall to $18.75 per tCO2e for 2,000 tCO2e this week, compared with $19.25-19.60 per tCO2e previously.

Buying interest on CP1’s spot contract was seen at $17.25 per tCO2e for 7,000 tCO2e, last week bids were at $17.75 per tCO2e for 2,000 tCO2e, down slightly from $18.00-18.15 per tCO2e in mid-January.

–Veethika Jain in London contributed to this report.

Fastmarkets quantifies this system through regular CORSIA Phase 1 spot benchmarks, demand and supply forecasts, and eligibility tracking, translating policy and registry data into the signals airlines use to manage cost exposure and compliance. Discover more.