Vegoils price commentary: CPO, CME soyoil futures down amid technical selling

Vegoils futures were broadly lower on Friday February 6.

In Asia, crude palm oil (CPO) futures extended their decline to close lower for a second day, with the most active month contract falling to its lowest in nearly two weeks. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, soyoil futures moved down amid some technical selling and weakness in the soybean complex.

In CPO contracts, traders took positions ahead of the weekend and with focus on next week’s key industry gathering where market outlooks, policies and developments will be discussed.

The most active April CPO futures contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell by 1.26% to close at 4,153 ringgit ($1,060) per tonne, with the contract trading in negative territory through the day and extending its losses from the morning when it closed at 4,191 ringgit per tonne at the midday break.

CPO was tracking losses in related complexes, with other vegoil futures also trading lower while crude oil prices also started the day lower before turning positive at time of writing amid uncertainties over the scheduled US-Iran talks taking place on Friday.

Chinese vegoil futures ended lower across the board, with the May palm olein futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by 1.03% to 9,026 yuan ($1,300) per tonne, while the May soyoil futures contract also slipped by 0.44% to close at 8,102 yuan per tonne.

The May rapeseed oil futures contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange also fell by 0.15% to close at 9,1,44 yuan per tonne.

Supply and demand data to be released

Market participants will also be anticipating next Tuesday’s Malaysia January supply and demand data release from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), where the end-stocks figure will be in focus after Malaysia ended 2025 with palm oil inventories at their highest since February 2019.

Production estimates from the Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) for the first five days of February were also reported at 7.65% higher on the month, with the higher number of working days compared with January 1-5 also contributing to the increase. 

In the cash market, one olein cargo was traded to China for February shipment at $1,078 per tonne CFR, while there was also talk of a February CPO trade concluded at $1,140-1,145 per tonne CFR India earlier in the day though details could not be verified at time of writing.

Discussions at close of the day to India were at $1,140-1,150 per tonne CFR west coast India (WCI) for February-shipment CPO, while offers for March cargoes were around $1,165 per tonne CFR WCI.

For Indonesia, CPO offers were at $1,100-1,110 per tonne FOB Indonesia for February and $1,130-1,140 per tonne FOB Indonesia for March, with buying ideas for February heard at $1,085 per tonne FOB Indonesia.

On Thursday, around 3,000 tonnes of soybean oil was traded for May-July shipment at $1,150-1,152 per tonne CFR Kandla, while sunflower oil trades were also concluded at $1,410-1,420 per tonne CIF landed weight (LW) India for March-April shipment from the Black Sea region, and at $1,388-1,390 per tonne CIF LW east coast India (ECI) for Argentina-origin sunoil.

Offers were around $1,250 per tonne CFR WCI for March-shipment soybean oil on Friday, $1,180-1,190 per tonne CFR WCI for April-shipment volumes and $1,164-1,168 per tonne CFR WCI for May-shipment, with discussions for March volumes limited amid low buying interest.

Black Sea-origin sunoil was offered around $1,420 per tonne CIF LW for April shipment, with buying ideas around $1,390 per tonne CIF, while offers for Argentine sunoil were around $1,395-1,400 per tonne CIF for the same month.

In the Americas, CME soyoil futures traded with losses, amid some lingering profit-taking following recent gains and a weakness in the soybean complex. Higher energy prices and product spreading limiting the negative pressure.

The most active March CME soyoil contract went down by 0.63% on the day to 55.30 cents per lb at Fastmarkets’ closing time, 1pm US Eastern time. 

Crude oil futures rebound

Crude oil futures rebounded in a choppy session amid a cautious sentiment persisting after the US suggested broadening talks with Iran beyond nuclear issues, raising further geopolitical concerns, despite prospects of a good start for negotiation in Oman.

Meanwhile, CME soymeal futures moved marginally lower, with the most liquid CME soymeal March contract down by 0.26% to $302.40 per short ton at 1pm US Eastern time.

Market participants adjusted positions on soybeans and soymeal contracts at Fastmarkets’ closing time, following sharp gains in the past two sessions.

Prices had surged after US President Donald Trump said in a social media post on Wednesday that China was about to buy at least 20 million tonnes of US soybeans for the current season, which sparked bullish sentiment among market participants.

In the physical market in South America, the Argentine market had a lot less liquidity and indications on February 6, while after Fastmarkets’ assessment time Brazilian soyoil for June and July loading was rumored traded at a discount of 7 cents per lb to July futures.

The March basis was assessed at discounts of 2.1 cents per lb in Argentina and 2.4 cents per lb in Brazil, both to March futures.

On the soymeal front, the March soymeal basis in Brazil was unchanged compared with the previous assessment, assessed at a discount of $0.50 per short ton to March futures.

In Argentina, the corresponding soymeal basis declined $8.50 per short ton compared with the previous price, assessed at a discount of $6 per short ton to the same futures contract.

As of 6:20pm Central European time, Euronext May rapeseed futures were trading at €488 ($576) per tonne, up by €2.25 per tonne from the last market close.

FOB Rotterdam rapeseed oil (RSO) prices kept their upward pace, closing the week on a higher note as prices continued to track gains in European and Canadian rapeseed and canola futures, which were mostly bullish this week.

Higher US soybean and soybean oil futures at the time of writing were also supportive, while weakness in Malaysian palm did not provide significant downward pressure.

March and April offers ranged €1,063-1,068 per tonne, with bids at €1,053-1,059 per tonne, compared with offers at €1,058 per tonne and bids at €1,049 per tonne on Thursday.

Offers for the May-June-July (MJJ) strip stood at €1,061-1,065 per tonne, while bids were reported at €1,054-1,056 per tonne. This compared with offers at €1,057-1,060 per tonne and bids at €1,048-1,054 per tonne on Thursday.

Down the curve, August-September-October (ASO) offers were indicated at €1,028-1,032, with bids at €1,019-1,026 per tonne, compared with offers at €1,024-1,026 per tonne and bids at €1,015-1,018 per tonne on Thursday.

Prices for FOB sunflower oil (SFO) across six EU ports rose slightly along the curve on Friday despite an overall quiet market tone and wide reported spreads between buyer and seller ideas.

For March, offers were heard at $1,460 per tonne, with bids at $1,425 per tonne, compared with offers at $1,445-1,465 and bids at $1,030-1,035 per tonne on Thursday.

For the April-May-June (AMJ) window, offers were indicated at $1,455 per tonne, with bids at $1,415 per tonne, compared with offers at $1,427.50-1,465 per tonne and bids at $1,420-1,422.50 per tonne on Thursday.

As for July-August-September (JAS), offers stood at $1,440-1,450 per tonne, with bids at $1,410 per tonne. This compared with offers at $1,425-1,455 per tonne and bids at $1,415-1,417.50 per tonne on Thursday.

On a CIF Mersin basis, the market showed limited change, with price ideas heard in the range of $1,385-1,390 per tonne offered versus $1,375-1,380 per tonne buyer ideas for Russia-origin sunflower oil for shipment from February 15 to March 15. Supply from the Ukrainian side was reported to be very limited.

Fastmarkets’ comprehensive coverage includes a wide range of veg oils and meals, including palm, coconut, cottonseed, peanut, sunflower and canola. Our dedicated team of price reporters and analysts monitors these markets daily to provide you with the most up-to-date pricing information. Discover more.

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