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Latin American packaging paper producers are seeing diverging fortunes as US eating habits evolve, a trend that could intensify further in the medium and long terms amid new US nutrition guidelines announced on January 7. Boxboard, used in folding cartons for cereals, snacks and other processed foods, is already facing headwinds, while containerboard, mostly used in corrugated shipping boxes, remains resilient and could even benefit from shifts in trade.
The new US nutrition policy discourages ultra-processed foods and added sugars while promoting red meat and full-fat dairy, which were previously limited by scientific recommendations. This change aligns with recent research on dietary patterns and mirrors the NOVA classification developed by Brazilian scholars, as well as the principles of the Brazilian Food Guide (Guia Alimentar para a População Brasileira, 2014), which underpin similar policies in Canada, France, Belgium and other countries. These frameworks emphasize reducing consumption of ultra-processed foods and favoring minimally processed ingredients, reflecting a global public health trend. But what do nutritional guidelines have to do with commodities and packaging markets in Latin America?
Latin America’s role in US food supply chains is expanding, which will likely affect the Latin American packaging market. Latin American food exports to the US have grown by almost 7% per year on average since 2007, reaching about $60 billion and accounting for about one-third of total US food and agricultural imports. Mexico is the largest supplier, accounting for almost 60% of the total with shipments of fresh produce and processed food. Consumer-oriented items account for more than 70% of food imports from Latin America, though it is hard to isolate “processed food” in trade data due to differences in countries’ classifications. The takeaway is that despite being a historical raw-material supplier, Latin America’s processed food industry plays a significant role in regional trade with the US.
On the boxboard side, the long-term trend is worrisome. Demand for processed and packaged foods is showing signs of slowing, and that directly hits carton consumption. Many Latin American food exported to the US arrive in colorful boxes or sleeves, e.g., cookies, confectionery and convenience meals. But US consumers are starting to pull back on these items. Part of this is voluntary, because Americans are becoming increasingly health-conscious, and part is related to the rapid spread of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. In 2025, boxboard consumption in Latin America dropped 1.5% from 2024 to 3.4 million tonnes, returning to the levels from 2021. Mexico, the largest Latin American consumer with almost 35% of regional demand and the largest Latin American food supplier to the US, posted one of the biggest declines in boxboard consumption, falling 2.8% in 2025.
GLP-1 drugs, such as Ozempic and Wegovy, are reducing the consumption of ultra-processed snacks and sweets. Market data show that households on GLP-1 medications buy 11% fewer salty snacks and cut overall grocery spending by about 5.5% within six months. This “Ozempic effect” has prompted major food companies to warn of softer sales, and, of course, this fallout extends to packaging: less processed food means fewer boxes and wrappers produced.
After a decade of steady growth, producers in Mexico reported a plateau in carton orders in 2023-25 while also facing cost-competitive imports from Asia seeking alternative markets to sell their excess capacity. Low-priced Chinese folding boxboard has been making inroads in Latin America in recent years, taking market share from local producers and US and European suppliers.
Operating rates in the Latin American boxboard market dropped from 86% in 2020 to 69% in 2025, amid increased competition from imports and some capacity expansion in Brazil. In Mexico, rates dropped from 86% in 2020 to about 77% in 2025 as Chinese imports’ market share of total imports rose from almost nothing to nearly 20% over the same period. To combat this, the Mexican government imposed steep tariffs and anti-dumping duties on certain paper imports in 2024 and 2025, helping domestic mills regain some market share in a stagnant market. But even if Chinese competition is limited, the underlying issue remains: if the product mix in US grocery carts shifts away from processed goods, Latin American paper mills can no longer count on the same booming demand for packaging those goods.
Corrugated packaging, meanwhile, tells a different story. Fresh and minimally processed foods still need plenty of heavy-duty boxes for transport, insulation and display. In fact, US buyers prioritizing “real foods” such as produce, meat and dairy could bolster the volume of bulk shipments from Latin America, which come packed in corrugated board. And the numbers bear this out. The US is a major fresh food export destination and sources fruit and vegetables from both Central and South America, with half of its imports coming from Mexico alone. Unlike boxboard demand, containerboard demand in Latin America grew in 2025, rising 0.6% to 16 million tonnes, almost 1 million tonnes above its 2021 level.
Every avocado, berry, pepper and mango traveled in crates and corrugated cases. Similarly, US imports of beef from Latin America have surged as its domestic cattle herds shrink. By 2022, Mexico had become the US’s second-largest foreign beef supplier (after Canada), and together Mexico and Brazil now account for roughly 40% of US beef import volumes, a position that could be threatened by trade friction, such as the US’s imposition of tariffs on Brazilian beef between July and November 2025. Still, lean beef trimmings and prime cuts all arrive in chilled containerboard boxes, supporting containerboard demand.
The same goes for other commodities, including Central American bananas, Chilean grapes, Peruvian avocados and blueberries and Colombian processed coffee. All of these food exports rely on sturdy containerboard boxes for shipping. Notably, the packaging for these bulk foods is often produced or sourced regionally (within the Americas) and usually meets US standards (for strength, hygiene, etc.). So even as nutrition trends evolve, Latin American containerboard demand may remain well supported by the steady flow of staples to the US market. Industry observers see a potential upside: if US nutrition policies and consumer preferences lead to more trade in fresh produce and protein in the medium to long term, the subsequent rise in corrugated volumes could offset some losses on the folding carton side.
Still, in the next two to five years, the new US nutrition guidelines will primarily influence US public food programs, such as the National School Lunch Program (NSLP), and various federal nutrition assistance programs, not the whole market. The immediate shifts in consumer behavior are expected to be minimal. We do not anticipate that Americans will radically change their diets solely in response to guidelines because habits evolve slowly; indeed, other forces are already suppressing processed food consumption, which also affects related markets, such as the packaging industry.
However, the effects of these guidelines on public food and nutrition policies should not be underestimated in the medium and long terms. The NSLP, for instance, which serves about 45 million meals per day, will gradually shift menus to align with the new recommendations, although officials indicate no major changes before 2027-28. Similar adjustments are expected in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, food stamps) and military meal programs. These programs account for a significant share of US public food spending — about $142 billion in 2024 across SNAP, school meals and more, roughly two-thirds of the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) budget.
The Latin American packaging industry will need to adapt to the changes in US food demand. If exports of ultra-processed foods continue to shrink, boxboard mills may be compelled to consolidate, diversify and/or convert to produce other grades of paper more aligned with future demand (e.g., lighter-weight board for meal-kit packaging). Containerboard producers, on the other hand, should stay busy supplying boxes for whatever goods move through the hemisphere, healthy or not. Even if processed food exports decline, those machines will churn out boxes for fresh mangoes, frozen chicken and beef, and everything in between. There is even upside potential and further demand growth if Latin America increases exports of nutrition-rich products that require robust export packaging.
A final piece to watch is whether the US government’s new holistic view of food (treating it as part of infrastructure and security) translates into new import standards. So far, the latest nutrition guidelines have not come with new trade restrictions or non-tariff barriers attached. They primarily guide domestic food policy and public expenditure. But the US could choose to leverage this philosophy in trade over time, which has precedents in other countries and industries: the US already demands rigorous documentation for organic imports and bans certain foods from regions with disease issues. Any move to require “healthy” or “sustainable” certifications on imports would raise the bar for Latin American suppliers.
For example, the idea of reinstating mandatory country-of-origin labeling (COOL) for beef (debated in Congress again in 2025) implies that foreign meat might one day need extra credentials to access the US market. Similarly, environmental standards, such as the EU’s new deforestation-free import rules, could eventually find an US parallel, affecting commodities like palm oil, cocoa and even beef from Latin America. These are longer-term hypothetical possibilities, but not negligible ones. The immediate reality is that policy seems to be leading what market forces can and cannot do. Latin American businesses would do well not to rely on the status quo or only focus on cost-efficiency. The smart play is to get ahead of the curve: invest in traceability, adopt sustainable practices and shift product portfolios to align with the “real food” ethos that is taking hold. That way, whether change comes via consumer choice or government mandate, they remain the preferred suppliers.
The bottom line is that the US is entering a new era of food consumption, one that values health, simplicity and provenance. As a key food supplier and packaging producer for the US, Latin America may feel the ripple effects. Packaging makers in the region are already experiencing the effects of these market moves: boxboard demand is easing, while corrugated box demand is holding firm, despite short-term trade friction. Food exporters are watching their most reliable growth markets (e.g., soft drinks, packaged snacks) mature or decline, even as new opportunities (e.g., high-protein foods, fresh produce) open up. The next few years will test the agility of Latin American agribusiness and food industries, including downstream packaging markets.
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