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Fastmarkets’ analyst James Moore estimated that the increased volume of zinc concentrates this year is at around 350,000 tonnes across the globe. Most notably owing to the revving-up of the Kipushi and Gamsberg mines in Africa and Ozenoye mine in Russia
At the same time, however, zinc raw materials output will be trimmed at Peru’s Antamina mine. The Red Dog Mine in the US and Australia’s Cannington mine will see lower output guidance this year due to ore degradation and exhaustion of reserves.
“I think the imported zinc concentrates supply to China could be somewhat tight in 2026,” a trader source based in Shanghai said. “China’s increasing smelting capacity will stimulate strong buying interest, especially for those units rich in copper and precious metals.”
Recent auction results from mines have already reflected this expectation, with deals concluded far below the spot levels.
A tender for Antamina units was reported concluded at $(7) per tonne for shipment in the first quarter of 2026, dipping into negative territory. This indicated that buyers would prefer to pay a premium to secure high-quality cargoes in an expected “tighter” market.
Standard clean units of Australia’s Dugald River mine were reported closed at $20-30 per tonne in the latest tender concluded in December, for delivery in February and March.
Fastmarkets’ twice-monthly assessment of the zinc spot concentrate TC, cif China was $40-60 per tonne on Friday January 9. It was down from $40-70 per tonne on Friday December 26.
In terms of lead concentrates, “a very limited increase in volume” of lead raw materials is estimated this year, according to Fastmarkets’ analyst James Moore, with the supply deficit persisting.
“There are some small increases from projects such as Volcan’s Romina, AgMR’s Reliquias [both in Peru] and Bunker Hill [in the US], while those volumes are offset by lower output from Red Dog and Cannington mines,” Moore said.
Fastmarkets’ monthly price assessment of lead spot concentrate TC, high silver, cif China was $(220)-(180) per tonne on December 24. It was down from $(160)-(140) per tonne on November 28.
Fastmarkets’ monthly price assessment of lead spot concentrate TC, low silver, cif China was $(180)-(150) per tonne on December 24. It was down from $(140)-(120) per tonne a month earlier.
TCs are the fees that miners or traders pay smelters to convert their ores into refined metal. With both TCs for zinc and lead concentrates expected to stay at a relatively low level in 2026, byproducts have become more critical to smelters’ profit margins to offset the high cost in raw materials purchasing, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
Major byproducts from zinc and lead smelting, namely sulfuric acid, silver, copper and gold, became major sources of income for Chinese smelters in 2025. These are estimated to remain influential in 2026, sources said.
A sharp decrease in sulfur exports from Russia in 2025, the world’s second-largest sulfur producer, has tightened the international supply, leading to a rise in sulfuric acid prices.
The most recent sulfuric acid price as of writing was about 900-1,000 yuan ($129-144) per tonne on average in the Chinese market, compared with 300-440 yuan per tonne in January 2025.
“I think profit gains from acid will continue to help smelters to compensate for the loss of the expectedly low TCs this year,” a Hong Kong-based trader said.
A third trader said, “oxidized lead used to be one of the regular raw materials for lead smelting, but I heard smelters showed less interest in it recently due to its low sulfur yields, which are no longer sufficient to generate by-product revenue.”
Beyond sulfuric acid, precious metals – particularly silver – have also become a critical means of generating revenue for lead smelters, sources said.
“Even if lead TCs dropped to deeply negative territory, profits from silver and other byproducts could still sustain the high operating rates at lead smelters,” according to a fourth trader source.
Silver prices nearly doubled in 2025 amid the macroeconomic volatility and resilient industrial demand and registered a historically high intra-day value of 23,688 yuan per kg on Thursday January 15 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
The most-traded SHFE silver contract closed at 22,483 yuan per kg on Friday January 16, up by 185.6% from 7,872 yuan per kg the same period of 2025.
“With tightness in lead ores supply to continue in 2026, revenues from silver will become increasingly significant for smelters,” a fifth trader source said.
As margins on primary TCs continue to be squeezed, the growing focus will be on any monetizable by-product value, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
With byproducts prices soaring, market participants showed strong caution and concern about the growing risks of huge price fluctuations.
“A large part of these drivers is cyclical and sentiment-boosted. If macro conditions change, precious metals’ prices could correct quite quickly,” a sixth trader source said.
Sulfuric acid prices also face uncertainty heading into 2026, despite their strong performance in the second half of 2025.
“If there are signs of easing in the Russia-Ukraine war and related trade restrictions are lifted, a recovery in overseas sulfur supply could weaken cost-side support for sulfuric acid prices,” an analyst told Fastmarkets.
China’s domestic policy shifts also added uncertainty to the acid outlook.
In December, under the guidance of the Economic and Trade Department of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, industry associations convened a meeting on stabilizing the phosphate fertilizer market.
The meeting called for ensuring fertilizer supply around the 2026 spring planting season and prioritizing domestic availability of key raw materials, including sulfuric acid.
“If China introduces controls on sulfuric acid exports, this would, to some extent, cap the further increase in domestic prices,” a seventh trader source said.
Overall, market participants widely believe that Chinese lead and zinc smelters will remain reliant on by-product revenues in 2026. But this reliance itself also implies uncertainty. Precious-metals prices are highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, while acid prices are exposed to both geopolitical factors and China’s domestic policy direction.
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