US hot-rolled coil index stumbles, but dynamics the same

Hot-rolled coil prices in the United States dipped despite buyers still struggling to find spot tons at competitive prices.

Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, fob mill US was calculated at $56.08 per hundredweight ($1,121.60 per short ton) on Wednesday January 20, down by 1.37% from $56.86 per cwt the previous day but 3.12% higher than $54.38 per cwt a week ago.

Inputs were collected in a range from $55.00-59.50 per cwt, with the low end representing fresh assessments from producers, distributors and consumers, and the high end representing a recent offer.

Heard in the market
Market participants continued to worry about distributors’ credit buying power and their ability to restock with HRC prices at record highs. Most reported concerns about this trend occurring but had not heard of any reports of distributors being unable to access enough credit to restock.

Indeed, most buyers have not been replenishing inventories at the same pace as before the price rally, according to sources. Some mills are still not returning calls to buyers, with spot tons still tight and contract buyers still limited to minimums, they said. Low inventories could keep prices elevated for longer, some sources speculated.

Quote of the day
“It’s not a question of pushing [prices up] until we’re content, it’s just the market,” a producer said. “The market price is a function of supply and demand.”

What to read next
The United States convened more than 50 countries in Washington this week for a critical minerals summit that delivered a flurry of new initiatives designed to reshape the geopolitics — and pricing mechanics — of minerals essential to semiconductors, electric vehicles and the defense supply chain.
The US laid out its strongest push yet to reshape global critical minerals supply chains at the inaugural Critical Mineral Ministerial in Washington on Wednesday February 4, where senior officials detailed plans for an allied trade bloc built on reference prices and enforceable price floors – a potential turning point for small, strategically important markets such as tungsten.
A new US initiative to establish a stockpile of critical minerals for the civilian economy could add pressure to already stretched supply, market participants told Fastmarkets on Tuesday February 3 and Wednesday February 4.
In 2026, the North American wood products industry enters a year of cautious stabilization.
Here are the key takeaways from market participants on US ferrous scrap metal prices, market confidence, inventory and more from our February survey.
This Fastmarkets Viewpoint explains how headline growth has been buoyed by AI‑driven investment even as the broader goods economy cools, and why truly disposable income and packaging demand move in lockstep.