US scrap trends outlook: March 2026

Here are the key takeaways from market participants on US ferrous scrap metal prices, market confidence, inventory and more from our March survey

US ferrous scrap market expected to soften slightly in March after strong February gains

Expectations for the US ferrous scrap market point to a modest pullback in March following a strong February trade which posted an average increase of 7.5% month-on-month. Market sentiment remains moderately positive with the Trend Indicator registering 55.2, suggesting that while the market is still supported, upward momentum has weakened. Nonetheless, the Outlook’s prediction model actually points to an average month-on-month decrease of 1.5% in March.

Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for March or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.

Diverging market sentiments highlight varied pricing expectations

Survey responses indicate a clear divergence in sentiment across market participants. Brokers remain the most optimistic with a Trend Indicator reading of 75.0, suggesting expectations of stronger pricing conditions. Sellers are more neutral with a reading of 51.6, while buyers are notably bearish at 38.9, indicating that mills are anticipating some easing in scrap values after February’s increases.

Brokers remain the most optimistic with a Trend Indicator reading of 75.0

Survey participant

Steady inventory levels and balanced market sentiment

Inventory levels are estimated slightly above normal with a reading of 53.1, suggesting that mills are generally well supplied heading into the March trade. This inventory position may limit the urgency for aggressive purchasing in the near term.

Participants largely indicated that no single factor is expected to dominate the market direction in March, with the most common response pointing to overall conditions remaining broadly unchanged. This aligns with the relatively balanced sentiment captured in the survey results.

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