MethodologyContact usSupportLogin
Rising demand has caused concern for the lithium industry, as some wonder if current supply capacity is enough to meet demand. The supply-demand balance in the lithium market is “really going to be a function of how much of the supply can come on,” Rodger explained.
“It’s really difficult to bring on large [lithium] projects, particularly when you’re looking at increasing the market so substantially [every] year,” Rodger explained.
A decline in lithium prices in 2022-2023 disincentivized investments into the US supply chain and put a pause on lithium projects, Rodger told Fastmarkets. Lithium prices have risen, but current price levels might not be attractive enough for long-term investments, he said.
Government funding initiatives could help alleviate the supply chain vulnerabilities, but projects that could be funded “don’t really exist, or at least not at the scale required,” the chief executive stated.
But Rodger is optimistic that additional government support will bolster the domestic lithium supply chain in upcoming years.
There is “an increased recognition from this administration on the importance of building out the battery supply chain,” Rodger said. “We expect that there’s going to be more funding directed into the lithium sector and other allied parts of the supply chain over the next couple of years.”
Lithium demand is expected to grow “around 20% year on year for decades,” Rodger explained. “The fundamental demand story has been very, very, very strong.”
Demand for lithium has skyrocketed on the back of increasing demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and the AI boom.
“The biggest single demand driver is electric vehicles globally,” the chief executive said.
In the US, EV demand has experienced some headwinds due to Trump’s rescinding of the EV tax credit under the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” in July 2025, Rodger said. Still, US Elemental is seeing a resurgence in demand following the US-Iran war, which caused gas prices to jump from $2.80 per gallon during the week ended February 23 to $4.14 per gallon during the week ended Monday June 1, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In the US, “I think it’s a bit early to say, but there’s been definitely data suggesting that the drive toward electric vehicles isn’t done.”
But “very strong battery energy storage demand growth” in the US has outweighed any decline in EV demand. Globally, battery storage is the second largest demand propellor.
US Elemental is situated to meet growing lithium demand, according to Rodger. “We’re one of the largest within projects in the US, and [US Elemental has] the ability to really supply over the longer term.”
Need to stay ahead in the lithium market? Access Fastmarkets’ lithium price data, market analysis and forecasting to help you make informed decisions for your business.
Still, China’s dominance in the lithium market is posing an issue for the US and other countries seeking to establish an independent supply chain, Rodger explained. Chinese production is also highly competitive compared with the rest of the world because they operate at very low margins, keeping Chinese lithium prices lower compared with US prices.
Fastmarkets’ lithium carbonate 99% Li2CO3 min, technical and industrial grades, spot price ddp US and Canada was last assessed at $20.50-24.00 per kg on Thursday June 4.
Meanwhile, lithium carbonate 99% Li2CO3 min, technical and industrial grades, spot price cif China, Japan & Korea was valued at $19.50-20.50 per kg on the same day.
And buyers are unwilling to pay a premium for non-Chinese material, Rodger explained. Government intervention like tariffs could force a premium, but currently “all the material flows through China at the moment anyway,” offsetting any impact from the tariffs on US supply.
The pathway to decoupling the lithium market from China is by building a more stable, vertically integrated US supply chain, but adding lithium capacity outside of China remains difficult, according to Rodger
Want to know more about how this is impacting the market? Access Fastmarkets’ price data, news analysis and forecasting to stay ahead. Speak to one of our experts to find out more.