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The committee maintained its balance sheets for soybeans, corn and edible vegetable oils from the previous month, while noting generally favorable crop conditions across major production regions and expectations of ample global oilseed supplies.
CAOC maintained China’s 2026/27 soybean import forecast at 95.5 million tonnes in July, unchanged from June. The soybean crush forecast was also left unchanged at 94 million tonnes.
The committee said soybean sowing had concluded smoothly across the Huang-Huai-Hai production region, with weather conditions generally favorable for crop emergence, while crop conditions in Northeast China remained normal.
Domestically, soybean crushers have maintained relatively high operating rates, while food consumption remains in its seasonal low period, leaving overall supply-demand fundamentals comfortable and prices broadly stable.
Internationally, soybean planting in the US has been completed, with actual planted acreage exceeding earlier expectations. Higher anticipated US production is expected to further loosen global soybean supply-demand balances, though prices are likely to remain sensitive to weather developments across North America’s key growing regions.
China’s 2026/27 soybean production forecast was maintained at 20.95 million tonnes, while total consumption was left unchanged at 113.96 million tonnes.
CAOC maintained China’s 2026/27 corn feed consumption forecast at 209.6 million tonnes in July, unchanged from June.
Total corn consumption was also left unchanged at 311.65 million tonnes, while production and imports were maintained at 306 million tonnes and 6 million tonnes, respectively.
The committee said temperatures and soil moisture levels across most of Northeast China remained favorable for crop development, while ample sunshine and warm conditions in North China also supported corn growth. Forecast rainfall across major producing regions is expected to replenish soil moisture, though low-lying farmland faces an elevated risk of waterlogging.
Domestically, continued sales of state corn reserves, increased feed substitution from domestic wheat and imported sorghum and barley, together with seasonal maintenance shutdowns at corn-processing plants, have kept raw-material demand subdued and corn prices stable to slightly weaker.
Internationally, market attention remains focused on weather-related risks across the Northern Hemisphere, particularly concerns over corn yields in the United States and Europe. However, sharp declines in crude oil prices have kept international corn prices at relatively low levels.
CAOC maintained China’s 2026/27 edible vegetable oil production forecast at 31.41 million tonnes in July, unchanged from June. Forecast soybean oil production was left unchanged at 17.17 million tonnes, while rapeseed oil output remained at 7.77 million tonnes. China’s edible vegetable oil consumption forecast was also maintained at 37.89 million tonnes.
The committee said the peak procurement season for the new rapeseed crop has largely concluded, with buying and selling activity remaining steady and prices broadly in line with previous years, though premiums for higher-quality rapeseed persist.
Meanwhile, peanuts in the Huang-Huai production region have entered the critical flowering and pod-setting stage. Rainfall is expected to be near or above normal, requiring close attention to field drainage to minimize potential production losses.
Internationally, rapeseed planting in Canada has been completed, with acreage reaching its highest level in nearly a decade. Expectations of more abundant global supplies have continued to weigh on rapeseed prices.