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European wheat values fell as Matif futures moved lower after recent gains, with technical indicators pointing to overbought conditions and encouraging profit taking.
The decline in futures fed directly into lower flat cash prices, while physical premiums were broadly stable, resulting in little change in underlying spot demand.
Premiums across France, Germany and the Baltics showed only marginal movement, suggesting sellers remained comfortable defending basis levels despite weaker futures.
Market participants said the correction was futures-led rather than demand-driven, with premiums largely holding while sellers adjusted offers downward in simple cash terms.
Fastmarkets’ assessment for wheat 11% FOB France was $232.00 per tonne for June loading on May 7, down $11.25 per tonne week on week.
Wheat 12.5% FOB Baltic was assessed at $239.25 per tonne for June loading on May 7, down $11.00 per tonne on the week.
Wheat 12.5% FOB Poland was assessed at $239.75 per tonne for June loading on May 7, down $11.00 per tonne week on week.
Meanwhile, wheat 12.5% FOB Germany was assessed at $240.25 per tonne for June loading on May 7, down $10.50 per tonne over the same period.
In cash markets, Algeria’s state grain buyer OAIC has made a purchase of 11.5% wheat on Wednesday paying $268-270 per tonne CFR for July shipment, with at least 390,000 tonnes booked.
That is only $2 per tonne down versus the price OAIC paid in its previous tender for June shipment, closed March 26.
In Australia, prices remain firm as dry weather continues across New South Wales and Queensland. Although some relief rainfall is expected in these states, it has not been sufficient to change the current market sentiment. In addition, Western Australia is currently the only major exporting state, which is providing support to prices.
Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment for wheat 10.5% FOB Australia W APW increased by $3 per tonne week on week to $277 per tonne for June loading on Thursday, along with wheat 9.5% FOB Australia W ASW which was also up by $3 per tonne to $272 per tonne Western Australia.
In the Black Sea wheat market, price levels in Russia remained generally stable during the week, with bids and offers moving slightly within a narrow range. In Ukraine, however, prices increased, with trade sources reporting that the recently concluded deals to Indonesia were done at the equivalent of $236-237 per tonne FOB. In addition, expectations are that the Algerian tender will be covered at around the same levels. As a result, the market expects any further trades to be concluded at similar price levels as well.
Fastmarkets’ assessment for wheat 12.5% FOB Russia was up by $0.50 per tonne week on week to $241.50 per tonne for June shipment on Thursday, while wheat 11.5% FOB Russia was unchanged at $236.00 per tonne.
The price assessment for wheat 11.5% FOB Ukraine increased by $2.50 per tonne to $236.00 per tonne for June loading on Thursday.
Feed wheat FOB Ukraine prices rose by $1 per tonne to $230 per tonne Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC) on Thursday.
In the EU Black Sea region, Fastmarkets’ assessment for June for wheat 11.5% FOB CVB moved down by $5.00 per tonne week on week to $237.75 per tonne on Thursday, while wheat 12.5% FOB Constanta/Varna/Burgas was $242.75 per tonne, down by $1.75 per tonne, and feed wheat FOB Constanta/Varna/Burgas was $229.75 per tonne, down by $10.00 per tonne.
US wheat export markets were largely steady during the week, with Gulf premiums and Pacific Northwest prices mostly unchanged.
The 11% FOB US Gulf hard red winter (HRW) premiums held at $1.30 per bushel over the July Kansas HRW futures contract for June and $1.25 per bu over the same contract for July.
The 10.5% FOB US Gulf soft red winter (SRW) market was also steady, with June at 75 cents per bu over the July Chicago SRW futures contract and July at 60 cents per bu over the same contract.
In the Pacific Northwest, 10% soft white wheat prices were steady during the week at $246 per tonne for June and $244 per tonne for July.
US wheat export inspections totaled 434,204 tonnes in the week to April 30, up by 17% from the previous week, according to USDA data.
In Canada, western red spring 13.5% FOB Vancouver premiums were steady, with both June and July at 93 cents per bu over the July Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) futures contract.
Canadian durum prices were unchanged during the week, with 14.5% cargoes at $280 per tonne FOB Vancouver and $295 per tonne FOB St. Lawrence.
In Argentina, wheat prices rose week on week, with Fastmarkets’ assessment of wheat fob Argentina 11.5% in the Up River hub for June up sharply to $240 per tonne, while new-crop December indications rose by $3-5 per tonne week on week with offers and bids disclosed at $250 per tonne and $240 per tonne, respectively, on Friday May 8.
Corn cash premiums and outright prices fell in Argentina, while moving in different directions in Brazil and the US. CME futures traded mostly lower in the week, following crude oil price volatility amid uncertainty over an agreement between the US and Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
In the five days to May 8, the front-month July corn contract on the CME fell by 0.53% to $4.71 per bu, with four consecutive days of losses, despite support from strong demand for US corn.
During the week, the possibility that the US and Iran could reach an agreement sooner rather than later pressured oil prices lower, and funds responded by liquidating long positions in corn on CME.
In the US, corn premiums and outright prices moved mostly down.
The corn FOB US Gulf premium for June loading fell to 93 cents per bu on May 7, from 96 cents per bu on April 30, over July CME futures.
The corn FOB US PNW premium for the same month rose by 5 cents per bu to 120 cents per bu, over July CME futures.
Outright prices were down, with June-loading Gulf prices dropping to $220.75 per tonne last Thursday from $224.5 per tonne the prior Thursday, while the Pacific Northwest (PNW) prices for the same loading month fell to $231.25 per tonne, from $232 per tonne, during the same period.
South Korean feed importers Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) and Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) were in the market for corn last week, with FLC picking up around 132,000 tonnes of corn for August-September arrival and NOFI buying around 136,000 tonnes for September arrival.
FLC paid $268.30 per tonne CFR South Korea for its first 65,000 tonne cargo plus $1.25 per tonne for the second port discharge cost from Sucden, while the second cargo of 67,000 tonnes was priced partially flat at $267.89 per tonne CFR and at a 215.50 cents per bu premium over the July CME corn futures contract plus $1.50 per tonne for the additional port discharge cost.
NOFI also picked up two cargoes, with the first 68,000 tonnes sold by Mitsui and priced partially at $269.94 per tonne CFR, and the remainder at a 213.68 cents per bu premium over the September CME corn futures contract.
A $1.75 per tonne cost was also levied for the additional port discharge.
The second cargo was sold by Cargill for arrival around September 10, with part of the cargo (48,000 tonnes) priced flat at $269.88 per tonne CFR, and the remainder at a premium of 211.78 cents per bu over the September CME futures contract, plus $1.50 per tonne for the additional port discharge cost.
In South America, corn premiums fell in Argentina, while in Brazil, they moved in opposite directions in Santos and Northern Arc.
The corn FOB Argentina premium for June loading fell to 68 cents per bu on May 7, from 74 cents per bu on April 30.
Corn FOB Argentina prices for June loading were down to $210 per tonne on Thursday, from $215.75 per tonne on April 30.
Argentine exports continue at high levels, as the volume of production shipped during the first two months of the season (March and April) totaled 9.76 million tonnes, according to Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR). This represents a 45% increase compared to the first two months of the previous year, when 6.7 million tons were shipped.
The main buyer of Argentine exports was Vietnam, accounting for 17%, followed by Egypt (16%) and Algeria (13%).
The corn FOB Brazil premium for July loading rose to 104 cents per bu on Thursday at Santos Port from 102 cents per bu on April 30. The corn FOB Brazil prices in the port of Santos for July loading fell to $225 per tonne on Thursday, from $227 per tonne a week earlier.
Corn FOB Brazil Northern Arc premium for July loading fell to 104 cents per bu on Thursday, from 105 cents per bu on April 30. Corn FOB Brazil Northern Arc prices for July loading dropped to $225 per tonne from $228.75 per tonne the prior Thursday.
In Brazil, the main export period starts in July, and most of the market is focused on the development of the second corn crop, safrinha, as the dry weather has raised concern over its output, and private analysts are projecting lower outputs for the crop.
After enthusiasm with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s announcement that Brazil would increase the percentage of ethanol in gasoline to 32% from 30%, the Brazilian National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) has postponed indefinitely the meeting scheduled first for May 7, and then for May 11, to discuss the matter.
Activity in soybean cash markets remained relatively quiet amid the long Labor Day holiday in China, which ended on May 5. At least 19 cargoes were traded, down from 22 the previous week.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures had a choppy trade over the week with a sharp surge last Monday that was paired through losses in the following days. CFR China premiums held broadly steady with outright prices trending slightly lower on Friday while in Brazil FOB premiums were volatile reacting to movements in futures prices. Brazil’s outright prices spiked on Monday and then lost momentum mirroring futures.
Buying activity remained concentrated in Brazil, loading from June to August. June and July cargoes traded at $1.55-1.59 per bu and $1.61-1.74 per bu, respectively, over July CME futures. Two August-loading cargoes were traded at $1.90 per bu over July CME futures.
Several new-crop cargoes loading from February to April 2027 were also heard traded, with March cargoes traded at $1.03-1.05 per bu over March CME futures.
Fastmarkets’ soybean CFR China premium for June loading was assessed at $1.55 per bu over July CME futures on May 8, up 1 cent per bu from $1.54 per bu over the same contract on April 30.
Fastmarkets’ soybean CFR China was assessed at $494.75 per tonne, down from $497.75 per tonne a week ago.
Brazilian FOB soybean premiums were slightly higher week on week. The Soybean FOB Brazil Paranagua Paper Premium for June loading rose to $0.32 per bu over July futures on May 7 from $0.27 per bu over the same contract the previous Thursday. Outright prices held broadly unchanged at $449.50 per tonne on May 7.
On Friday, a large amount of soymeal was traded in China’s cash market with big volumes committed for new crop as the DCE started trading May 2027 futures.
Meanwhile, Argentine soyoil premiums continued to trend lower during the week and are already at the lowest level since Fastmarkets started assessing the market in 2018, aligned with the lows reached in mid-2023 at discounts of 22 cents per lb under CME futures on the front end of the curve.
These levels should be sufficient to open up some arbitrage opportunities to bring Argentine soyoil into the US during the Northern hemisphere’s summer this year.
Fastmarkets Agriculture understands the challenges faced by the grains and oilseeds industry due to disruptions in production and logistics. As global demand for food, livestock and machinery continues to rise, these disruptions cause increased opacity and volatility in the market.