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Something has shifted in European wheat markets this season. Futures have been falling for days. Physical sellers are holding firm while buyers stay back. And the fund money that spent much of May building bullish positions in Euronext wheat has begun cutting exposure. Yet the story is more complicated than a simple downtrend suggests – and for anyone buying or selling European grain over the coming months, understanding why matters.
Two forces in particular are shaping the near-term picture: a weekly export flow from France that has deteriorated sharply despite a solid cumulative program, and a speculative community that added and then trimmed its conviction in short order. Taken together, they point to a market under genuine pressure – but not a broken one.
EU wheat exports in the current marketing year reached 19.23 million tonnes as of May 31, according to the latest data published by the European Commission. Morocco was the single largest destination at 3.15 million tonnes, equivalent to 15.04% of the total. Egypt was the second-largest buyer at 1.76 million tonnes (8.40%), followed by Saudi Arabia at 1.74 million tonnes (8.1%), Nigeria at 1.62 million tonnes (7.6%) and Algeria at 1.11 million tonnes (5.32%).
By any prior-year comparison, that is a competitive export program. But the weekly flow data from Rouen – one of the clearest near-term signals in European wheat trade – tells a different story about where momentum is heading.
In the week to May 27, Rouen exported 218,613 tonnes of grain, a 13.4% rise from 192,727 tonnes the prior week, driven by stronger soft wheat flows to southern Europe and North Africa alongside continued barley demand from China. Cumulative shipments through Rouen since July 2025 had reached approximately 7.93 million tonnes at that point, up from 7.71 million tonnes previously.
Then came the sharpest single-week drop of the season. In the week to June 3, Rouen exports collapsed 66.6% to just 72,923 tonnes. Cumulative shipments ticked up to approximately 8.00 million tonnes – but the weekly momentum had fallen off. At La Pallice in western France, activity in the same week was limited to a single 30,000-tonne parcel of soft wheat, all destined for Cote d’Ivoire.
The speculative positioning story in Euronext wheat has moved in two clear phases over the past two weeks of available data.
In the week ended May 22, investor milling wheat long positions continued to rise, increasing by 2,251 lots – a 1% gain – to 284,151 lots. Positioning remained supportive across the complex, with funds continuing to build bullish bets in wheat and rapeseed while maintaining only limited conviction in corn. The direction of travel at that point was clear: money managers were adding exposure.
That changed in the following week. The COT report for the week ended May 29, published June 3, showed investor milling wheat long positions had fallen by 25,040 lots – a 9% decline – back to 259,110 lots. Net length in wheat dropped 46% on fund selling. Positioning turned less supportive overall, with funds scaling back bullish exposure in wheat and trimming net length in rapeseed. The only bright spot was modest short covering in corn.
In practical terms: the support structure that speculative positioning provided through mid-May has been reduced significantly in a short space of time. When fund money exits at this pace, the physical market has to find its own level – and physical demand has not been strong enough to compensate.
Neither of the forces described above points to a market in crisis. The cumulative EU export program at 19.23 million tonnes remains competitive in year-on-year terms. Fund positioning, while reduced from its May peak, has not flipped net short – meaning a residual base of speculative support remains in place.
The question for the weeks ahead is whether harvest delivers the quality outcomes the market needs to sustain its premium structure. Morocco, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria between them account for more than 38% of EU wheat export destinations – buyers who need consistent milling specification and who will reprice quickly if European quality disappoints at harvest.
For now, the balance of forces favors continued near-term softness. Rouen flows have fallen sharply. Fund length has been trimmed. And a market where sellers are holding firm while buyers stay back is, by definition, waiting for a catalyst. The path of least resistance remains lower – but the floor is closer than the headline downtrend implies.
Fastmarkets Agriculture understands the challenges faced by the grains and oilseeds industry due to disruptions in production and logistics. As global demand for food, livestock and machinery continues to rise, these disruptions cause increased opacity and volatility in the market. Discover more.