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Key takeaways:
Tightening export controls on upstream products, alongside policies encouraging overseas resource acquisition and higher imports of tungsten concentrates, is pushing the country toward a new strategy – importing more raw materials while expanding exports of higher-value downstream products.
The change marks a strategic move up the value chain, reinforcing China’s position in global tungsten processing while extending its control across the broader supply chain.
The country’s latest mineral resource implementation rules underscore this shift, emphasizing “full chain” management of strategic resources, spanning exploration, extraction, processing, trade and reserves. The framework gives authorities greater ability to manage supply through output controls, centralized approvals and coordinated reserve systems.“For some critical minerals, approvals that were previously handled at the local level are now being elevated to the central government, reflecting a shift toward more centralized and coordinated resource management,” a Chinese ferroalloys producer said.
Beyond tightening control over domestic mining, the new framework also reinforces China’s commitment to securing resources overseas.Under the country’s “going out” strategy, mining companies are increasingly encouraged to align their investments with national priorities rather than operate as purely commercial entities, pointing to a more selective and state-coordinated approach to resource acquisition.“The government is encouraging companies to buy tungsten raw material from outside China and expecting big players to acquire tungsten mines outside China,” another China-based trader said.This policy direction is increasingly visible in trade flow data, which suggests parallel adjustments are taking place upstream and downstream.China’s imports of tungsten concentrates have risen significantly over the past year, while shipments of higher value-added products such as tungsten carbide have remained robust.
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Import volumes of tungsten concentrates surged by around 180% between early 2025 and early 2026, highlighting a steady increase in physical inflows despite month-to-month volatility.
With tungsten prices rising sharply at the start of 2026, the total value of imports in yuan expanded even more dramatically, climbing more than sixteen-fold over the same period.
Industry participants say this pattern reflects policy support for securing upstream resources, alongside continued emphasis on maintaining China’s downstream processing advantages.“Recent import flows show that output from overseas mines – including those in Kazakhstan – is largely shipped to China, as processing capacity outside the country remains limited,” a Chinese tungsten producer said.“Overseas producers lack sufficient refining infrastructure, meaning most of the material ultimately flows back into China for processing,” the producer added.“Even combined, overseas output remains a fraction of China’s capacity, which exceeds 200,000 tonnes per year, compared with less than 20,000 tonnes abroad.”
Recent developments at the Bakuta tungsten project in Kazakhstan – one of the world’s largest open-pit tungsten deposits – further illustrate how overseas supply is integrated into China’s industrial system.
The project, which began initial commercial production in April 2025 and is backed by Chinese investment, is expected to process more than 170 million tonnes of ore over its mine life, with annual output peaking at over 8 million tonnes.“Despite being located outside China, much of the project’s output is expected to be directed back into China’s processing chain, underlining how overseas resource expansion is reinforcing, rather than reducing, China’s role in the global tungsten supply network,” a Chinese raw material buyer said.
Trade data also suggest a strong alignment between Kazakhstan’s emerging tungsten output and China’s import flows. Monthly imports of tungsten concentrate from Kazakhstan have stabilized at around 800,000–1.1 million kg since mid-2025, implying annualized inflows of roughly 10,000 tonnes.This is broadly consistent with the expected tungsten output from the Bakuta project at current grades, indicating that a substantial share of the project’s production is likely being directed to China.
At the same time, downstream trade flows point to expanding exports of processed material.
According to China Customs data, shipments of tungsten carbide rose by nearly 150% between February and April 2026, increasing from around 109,550kg to 271,460kg, in an indication of strengthening foreign demand for higher-value products.
Taken together, the data points to a clear structural shift: China is importing more raw materials while exporting more processed products, consolidating its role as the core processing hub in the global tungsten market.The dual movement highlights how export restrictions are not only reshaping trade flows and price transmission but also accelerating a broader transition in which upstream resource development is increasingly externalized, while value-added processing – and supply chain control – remain concentrated within China.
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