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World population will grow until 2050, before stabilising at around 9 billion people, he told delegates at the 23rd Brazilian Steel Congress, organised by the steel association IABr in São Paulo city.
Thus, global steel use would total 2.2-3 billion tonnes per year, he said.
“It would be equivalent to a 4% growth rate over a 20-year investment cycle,” Basson added.
Basson believes iron ore shows long-term availability in most major ore production countries, but warned about a reduction in the Fe grading of these minerals.
He also observed that coking coal reserves have fallen by 50% lately, and its lower availability could force a change in the technology used by mills in their steelmaking process.
Environmental challenges such as reduced carbon dioxide emission will require a value-chain approach, he added.
This would include discussions with energy suppliers, as well as steel-consuming industries and downstream operations.
“Currently, both iron and steel sectors account for 6.5% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions,” he said.
However, Basson believes the outlook for the global steel industry is positive.
“We cannot keep a modern and sustainable society without the steel sector,” he said.