Rio Tinto again lowers 2020 refined copper guidance after delayed restart at Kennecott smelter in US

Rio Tinto has further cut its 2020 production guidance for refined copper, by about 16%, after delays to the restart of the smelter at its Kennecott mine in Utah in the United States, the company said this week.

The delay was caused by unexpected issues following a scheduled 45-day maintenance shutdown that was scheduled for May.

“We are working closely with our customers to limit any disruption and expect to have the smelter fully operational in [the next] two months,” Rio Tinto said on Tuesday August 18. 

Rio Tinto’s 2020 production guidance for refined copper now stands at 135,000-175,000 tonnes.

The latest downward adjustment, follows a previous downgrade in April to 165,000-205,000 tonnes – from 205,000-235,000 tonnes previously – after a 5.7-magnitude earthquake in March damaged the flash converting furnace at Kennecott. which then required a full furnace rebuild.
 
Uncertainty in mining and metals sector caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, along with a weakening US dollar index, quantitative easing in larger economies and the expectation of substantial infrastructure spending in China and elsewhere, are combining to push up spot copper prices.

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics released on August 18 shows that the country’s refined copper production fell by 5.3% to 814,000 tonnes in July, down from 860,000 in June and, while unchanged from June 2019, the figure also represents the lowest monthly total since March 2020.

The LME copper price touched a more than two-year intraday high of $6,686 per tonne in morning trading on Wednesday August 19, while copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses fell for a fifth straight day on August 18, dropping 2,475 tonnes to a 13-year low of 107,525 tonnes.

The US dollar index was 92.35 as of 12:37 Shanghai time on August 19, down by 10.2% after reaching 102.84 on March 19. 

Rio Tinto’s production guidance for mined copper remains at  475,000-520,000 tonnes, having been adjusted down from 530,000-570,000 tonnes in April.

What to read next
The Mexico Metals Outlook 2025 conference explored challenges and opportunities in the steel, aluminum and scrap markets, focusing on tariffs, nearshoring, capacity growth and global trends.
China has launched a coordinated crackdown on the illegal export of strategic minerals under export control, such as antimony, gallium, germanium, tungsten and rare earths, the country’s Ministry of Commerce announced on Friday May 9.
Fastmarkets proposes to amend the frequency of Taiwan base metals prices from biweekly to monthly, and the delivery timing for the tin 99.99% ingot premium from two weeks to four weeks.
The US-China trade truce announced on May 12 has brought cautious optimism to China’s non-ferrous metals markets, signaling a possible shift in global trade. Starting May 14, the removal of additional tariffs has impacted sectors like battery raw materials, minor metals and base metals such as zinc and nickel, with mixed reactions. While the improved sentiment has lifted futures prices and trade activity, the long-term effects remain unclear due to challenges like supply-demand pressures and export controls.
The publication of Fastmarkets’ assessments of Shanghai bonded aluminium, zinc and nickel stocks for April 30 were delayed because of a reporter error. Fastmarkets’ pricing database has been updated. The data effective for April 30 was published on May 7 as a result. The following assessments were affected:Shanghai aluminium bonded stocksShanghai zinc bonded stocksShanghai nickel […]
Global physical copper cathodes premiums were mixed in the week to Tuesday April 15, with US market moving down, Europe rising and Asia holding largely steady.