Fastmarkets’ soybean oil futures forecast

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The year of 2025 was one of uncertainty for the US vegetable oil market, with unresolved federal biofuel and tax policies sparking major shifts in supply and demand.
Ukraine exported 420,200 tonnes of sunflower oil in December 2025, up 3% from 409,300 tonnes in November, according to preliminary customs-based data compiled by the Ukroliyaprom Association.
Fastmarkets has corrected its AG-SYB-0078 Crush Margin China Soy (Brazil) M1 Yuan/mt and AG-SYB-0079 Crush Margin China Soy (US Gulf) M1 Yuan/mt, which had all forward curve months published incorrectly in February, and between April and September.
Fastmarkets has corrected its AG-SYB-0082 Crush Margin US Soy M1 c$/bu price, which had all forward curve months published incorrectly in the month of April 2025 and M2 published incorrectly in October 2025.
Soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) rose on Friday November 28 in a holiday-shortened session due to Thanksgiving.
Fastmarkets’ weekly recap of the main movements in global cash markets.