US scrap trends outlook: May 2024

What’s the market sentiment for May?

• The trend indicator for May is at 59.4, with a consensus close to equilibrium at 56%
• Buyers are cautiously optimistic with a score of 52.6, while brokers are bullish with 69.2
• 40% of the respondents expected higher prices, 19.1% expected lower prices
• Inventory levels are assessed at 56.5, slightly above the norm

Read on for a summary of the results of our US ferrous scrap market survey for May or click here to download your copy of the full US Scrap Trends Outlook.

Modest expectations of price growth

In May 2024, the scrap metal market appears to be stabilizing as key indicators suggest a moderate yet steady environment. The trend indicator for the month sits at 59.4, reflecting modest expectations of price growth, with a consensus close to equilibrium at 56%. This consensus level indicates a slight divergence in market opinion, yet remains within the bounds of typical variability.

Buyers are cautiously optimistic, but brokers are bullish

The forecasted scrap price change month-over-month is poised at a 2.7% increase. This cautious optimism is echoed by the buyers’ market side, which shows a trend indicator of 52.6, suggesting a measured confidence in price escalation. However, brokers exhibit a more bullish stance with a substantial 69.2 indicator, potentially driven by a strategic positioning in a market of balanced inventories.

Stable market dynamics and no major shifts are expected

Inventory levels are assessed at 56.5, slightly above the norm, which might indicate a buffer against potential supply constraints without signaling any immediate supply excesses. This stockpile adequacy aligns with the market driver ‘all unchanged,’ reinforcing the sentiment that no major shifts are expected to perturb the current market dynamics.

US hot-rolled coil and deep-sea ferrous scrap prices stabilize

US hot-rolled coil prices have stabilized in the lower to mid $800 range, falling short of some suppliers’ targets of $900 per short ton. This, along with a decent supply, may limit any significant rise in prime scrap prices in May. Meanwhile, range-bound pricing for US deep-sea ferrous scrap cargoes and a degree of abstention from Turkish buyers is keeping obsolete pricing firm but capping some potential for upward moves over the period.