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If dry conditions persist, however, the projected volume could drop to 128.8 million tonnes, down 2% from the previous crop year.
The calculation to estimate the impact of the moisture deficit in Argentine production considers the average productivity of the last five years, which BCR said is a conservative scenario.
The main driver for the growth under optimal conditions is soybeans, with a 5.1% increase in production, estimated at 52.6 million tonnes versus the 50 million tonnes from 2023-24, in a sowed area of 17.7 million hectares, up 7.5% from the previous crop year’s 16.46 million ha. The figure is within the previous projection of 52 million-53 million tonnes made on September 12.
But under less-than-ideal soil moisture conditions, Argentina’s soybean production could be 6.6 million tonnes lower than under average circumstances, reaching 46 million tonnes, an 8% year-over-year decline.
Corn production was forecast at 52 million tonnes, up 5.1% from the previous crop year’s 49.5 million tonnes, but in a projected area of 8 million ha, 20.6% lower year over year. On September 12, BCR pegged the new crop year corn production at 51 million-52 million tonnes.
If the dry conditions continue, the corn output could drop to 47.6 million tonnes.
Wheat production was pegged at 20.4 million tonnes versus 14.5 million tonnes in the previous crop year, and slightly below the estimate of 20.5 million tonnes earlier this month. The planted area remained pegged at 6.7 million ha, up by 21% year over year.
The sowing of the 2024/25 wheat crop is complete, and crops now head to a critical period waiting for rains. If the rains do not reach the crops in the necessary volumes, production could fall to 18.5 million tonnes.
The estimates also consider sunflower, barley and sorghum production, with production projected at 4.2 million tonnes, 3.2 million tonnes and 5.2 million tonnes respectively for the new crop year.
But under less-than-ideal circumstances, the three crops combined could lose 1.6 million tonnes.
Argentina’s grain and soybean products exports are expected to reach 101.5 million tonnes in 2024-25, up 15% from the previous crop year’s 87.9 million tonnes and the highest in the past four years.
Despite the increase, the projected figure remains behind the record 104.1 million tonnes Argentina exported in the 2018-19 crop year.
The exports could bring $35.5 billion to Argentina’s economy, compared with $30.8 billion from 2023-24.
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