SAF to account for 12% global aviation energy demand by 2050, said DNV

By mid-century, aviation will take the biggest share of bioenergy for transport – estimated at 48% – followed by the maritime industry, which will claim 32%, DNV said.

Aviation’s higher share is due to decarbonization policies and “consumer-push” that has led many airlines to set tough targets for switching to SAF, according to the report.

This has already been felt by the market, where SAF production doubled between 2022 and 2023 and is expected to more than double again between 2023 and 2024, “albeit form a very low starting volume,” DNV said.

There is still a long way to go for the sector to fully decarbonize, despite various policies around the world implemented to aid the process.

Mechanisms like the European Commission’s RefuelEU Aviation Initiative, which aims to increase the uptake of SAF as part of the wider EU Green Deal, “play a critical role in the adoption of SAF and creating a viable customer base for the production/consumption of hydrogen-based fuels,” DNV said.

Fastmarkets’ senior analyst, Tore Alden, answers six key questions on the challenges faced by the sustainable aviation fuel industry. Watch the full interview here.

SAF and hydrogen

While the aviation industry is exploring the use of hydrogen as an additional alternative, the low energy density of the greener fuel requires new aircraft designs and infrastructure, despite being labeled as “near emission-free transport”.

“This will limit its adoption to 4% of the energy mix by 2050,” DNV said, adding that due to more widespread availability, “first-mover advantage” and less associated regulatory barriers to being certified as renewable fuels, bio-based SAF will reach a 22% share by mid-century.

SAF in the form of e-fuels based on hydrogen will meanwhile gain traction in the 2040s, the report said, and will “dominate” over pure hydrogen in the aviation sector due to their versatility to reach a 12% share by 2050.

Overall, region-specific pushes from both businesses and from individuals “that are willing to pay for SAF” will enable “a gradual increase in uptake of uncompetitive (on cost) aviation fuels such as hydrogen and SAFs.”

Meanwhile, efforts made by larger firms and corporations which are willing to invest in SAF to reduce their Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions “are still in their nascent stage,” DNV noted, as well as “voluntary.”

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