The cost of producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in Europe reached sky-high levels at the end of the first half of the year, driven higher by tightening waste-based feedstock markets, volatile energy prices and growing doubts over Europe’s ability to meet its SAF ambitions, sources told Fastmarkets.

Higher mandate targets alongside stricter feedstock requirements have hit EU biodiesel imports in recent years, while hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) imports are on the rise.

The UK government has launched a call for evidence on the future availability of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), seeking industry views on whether supplies of advanced fuels will be sufficient to meet increasingly ambitious mandate targets later this decade.

The US Department of Energy’s release of an updated model under the revised 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit framework for Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (45ZCF-GREET) on Friday June 12 provides additional clarity on how feedstock economics could evolve, improving the outlook for soybean oil and canola while largely preserving the competitiveness of waste-based feedstocks such as used cooking oil (UCO), tallow and distillers corn oil (DCO).

Global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) demand is expected to increase more than sixfold by the end of the decade, reaching 12.8 million tonnes in 2030 from around 2.1 million tonnes in 2025, according to SkyNRG's 2026 SAF market outlook, developed in partnership with consultancy ICF.

European hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) markets have spent much of May and June 2026 navigating a structural tension that weekly price movements alone do not fully capture. 

US animal fats and oils markets remained quiet midweek on Wednesday May 27, with participants describing a slow start and limited immediate pricing activity.

A timely deep-dive into how Brazil's biodiesel mandate delays, the US EPA's new Renewable Volume Obligations, and Iran-driven crude oil volatility have combined to reshape South American soybean oil export flows, crush margins, and cash premiums in 2026.

European SAF production costs rose in the week to May 15 as used cooking oil prices climbed to €1,117 per tonne, feedstock spreads diverged sharply across rapeseed and palm oil, and firming poultry meal prices signalled that competition for Europe's finite pool of waste-based materials is tightening across fuel and food supply chains simultaneously.

Policy developments in Washington and Beijing over the week ended Friday May 15 are beginning to shift expectations for global biofuel feedstock flows, with potential downstream implications for US used cooking oil (UCO) and animal fats markets.