US farmer sentiment in November surges after election to highest since May 2021

Sentiment among US agricultural producers jumped in November, with the main driver being producers’ confidence in the future, the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey showed on Tuesday December 3.

“For the second month in a row, US farmers’ sentiment improved markedly, in a survey taken just one week following the November 2024 elections,” James Mintert and Michael Langemeier wrote in the report.

The barometer increased by 30 points in November to 145, the highest level since May 2021.

The Index of Current Conditions climbed by 18 points to 113, while the Index of Future Expectations surged by 37 points to 161, the highest since April 2021.

“Some of the reasons behind the improvement in farmer sentiment include expectations for a future regulatory and tax environment for the agricultural sector that is more favorable than expected prior to the November elections,” the authors wrote.

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer sentiment index is calculated each month from the responses of 400 US agricultural producers to a telephone survey, with this month’s survey being conducted on November 11-15.

A boost in farmers’ optimism

“Responses to the base questions used to compute the Ag Economy Barometer index were nearly all more positive in November than in October,” the report said.

Thirty-four percent of farmers in November said they expect the US agricultural sector to experience good financial times in the next 12 months compared with 15% of respondents in October.

When asked to look ahead five years, 52% of respondents in November said they expect US agriculture to experience widespread good times, up from 34% who felt that way in October.

The boost in optimism was reflected in farmers’ investment outlook, with 22% of respondents last month reporting it is a good time to make large investments compared with 15% in October.

Farmers had a more positive view of their financial situation last month, with the Farm Financial Performance Index jumping by 16 points from October to 106.

The Farm Capital Investment Index increased by 13 points to 55, the highest level since May 2021.

“The shift in investment sentiment was motivated in part by expectations for better financial performance in 2025 compared to 2024,” the report said.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Index, which asks producers about their outlook for the next 12 months, fell by 5 points to 115, while the Long-Term Farmland Value Index, which asks about the outlook in five years, slipped by 3 points to 156.

In November, 55% of farmers said they expect a less restrictive environmental regulatory environment for agriculture in the upcoming five years, while 9% expected more-restrictive regulations, which was a big shift compared with October.

In October, 41% of respondents said they expected the regulatory environment to become more restrictive during the same period, with 10% of respondents expecting a less restrictive regulatory environment.

“Perhaps the biggest concern expressed by farmers as the transition to a new administration gets underway is the future of agricultural trade, with over two-fifths of survey respondents saying they think a ‘trade war’ is either likely or very likely,” the report said.