PV industry will remain bearish in 2025; focus shifts to high-efficiency modules

Bearishness in China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry is expected to remain in 2025 amid overcapacity, market participants widely agree

At the same time, focus has shifted to the development of high-efficiency modules, sources told Fastmarkets on Monday January 6.

Overcapacity and low prices in the PV sector have already resulted in polysilicon production cuts among major producers such as Tongwei and Daqo New Energy, to alleviate the downward pressure in the market at the end of 2024.

Suppliers’ self-regulated production cuts should help restore balance in the polysilicon supply-demand dynamic and stabilize prices, while also helping support the long-term healthy development of the PV industry, according to sources.

On December 24, Tongwei announced on its official channel that it would implement phased production cuts at four high-purity polysilicon plants.

The company attributed the decision to rising electricity costs during the dry season in southwestern China. The timeline for resuming full production remains unclear.

Tongwei, a global leader in high-purity polysilicon, operates under its subsidiary Sichuan Yongxiang Co Ltd, which has production capacity exceeding 900,000 tonnes per year. Tongwei has maintained the largest global market share in this sector for several years.

On the same day, Daqo New Energy announced plans for scheduled maintenance and phased production cuts at its polysilicon production lines in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia.

The company is a leading Chinese producer of polysilicon and a key supplier to the upstream PV industry, and has capacity of 305,000 tpy.

Polysilicon, refined from silicon metal, is the primary raw material for silicon-based solar cells and a critical component of the PV supply chain. Solar-grade polysilicon, with a purity level between 6N and 9N, is processed into solar products such as silicon ingots, wafers, solar cells and modules.

Going into 2025, industry participants expect the oversupply of polysilicon to continue to weigh on the market, causing significant financial strain and widespread losses across the industry, Fastmarkets heard during an industry forum that took place on December 25.

“The PV industry started its downward trend from the end of 2023. This is expected to last longer than what we have experienced in the past when the industry would rebound in only one or two years, considering that aside from the overcapacity of upstream raw materials to downstream solar modules, we are also facing a restructure of global demand,” one attendee at the event told Fastmarkets.

Downstream adaptation and innovation

A singular focus on cost reduction will not resolve the issue of overcapacity; instead, investment in the development of high-efficiency modules is moving in the right direction, according to a solar cell sales manager.

PV module manufacturers are also adapting to the evolving competitive landscape by launching innovative products with higher efficiency.

For example, on December 26, GCL Integration Technology unveiled its new back contact (BC) module, the GPC 2.0. Built on a passivated-contact technology (TOPCon), the new module achieves power output of up to 660 W with a size of 2,382 mm x 1,134 mm.

GCL is the third major PV company to introduce BC modules, after Aiko Solar and Longi Green Energy Technology.

As well, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange introduced polysilicon futures and options on December 26, setting the benchmark listing price at 38,600 yuan ($5,260) per tonne for the first batch of contracts.

This launch follows earlier listings of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate, and offers polysilicon producers a new sales channel, boosting market liquidity.

The most actively traded June 2025 polysilicon futures contract on the GFE closed at 42,560 yuan per tonne on Friday December 29, up 2.38% from the initial price of 41,570 yuan per tonne on December 26.

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