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Key takeaways:
US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order implementing an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, raising the total tariff to 50%, the White House said in a statement published on Wednesday July 30.
The new tariffs will take effect in seven days. The order exempts wood pulp, certain food items, minerals and energy and civil aviation products, among hundreds of others.
In the case of pulp, the tariff will remain at the previously established rate of 10% set by the US government.
According to Fastmarkets senior economist Patrick Cavanagh, the decision is welcome news, both for US consumers and for Brazilian pulp producers.
“Although still facing a 10% reciprocal tariff, Brazilian BEK producers will now stand on a more level playing field with other South American producers that had hoped for an opportunity to gain market share in the US at the expense of Brazil,” Cavanagh said.
The unilateral announcement will still likely contribute to inflationary pressures in the US market but will at least provide some stability and clarity for participants in the Brazil-US wood pulp trade, he added.
Under confidential conditions, representatives of Brazil’s forestry sector welcomed the exclusion of pulp from the additional 50% tariffs.
Brazil is responsible for exporting 2.8 million tonnes of hardwood eucalyptus pulp per year to the US, representing around 85% of US imports of this product.
The tariffs were initially announced by Trump on July 9 and are the highest among those imposed on countries exporting to the US.
In agriculture, orange juice and fertilizers were exempted from tariffs, while tallow, beef, coffee, ethanol, fruits and other Brazilian agricultural products exported to the US are expected to be tariffed.
The 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports was announced on June 9 and was initially expected to come into effect on August 1.
On Tuesday, United States Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick mentioned the possibility of excluding products that are not produced in the US from tariffs, without mentioning which country they originated from, sparking some hope among Brazilians that some agricultural products could be spared.
According to the executive order, products shipped before August 5 and available for consumption in the US by October 5 will not be charged the full 50%, but the current 10% tariff announced back on April 2.
The tallow sector is among the most affected among the agricultural markets covered by Fastmarkets, as nearly 97% of Brazil’s exported tallow has been delivered to the US in 2025, according to customs data.
In the first six months of 2025, tallow exports climbed by 59.3% to 235,663 tonnes from 147,915 tonnes in the same period a year earlier, official customs data showed.
Even after Trump’s first announcement on July 9, Brazilian exporters kept buying tallow in the domestic market, hoping that an agreement could be reached before August 1, when the tariffs were originally meant to take effect, or it could also be exempted from tariffs.
The tariff announcement also included a reprieve for copper. Copper scrap and copper input materials including ores, concentrates, mattes, cathode and anodes will not be subject to the proposed tariff, first alluded to on July 8, according to a White House Fact Sheet released on Wednesday.
According to the fact sheet, the Proclamation was signed “to address the effects of copper imports on America’s national security.”
Market participants previously anticipated that refined copper cathode would be included in this tariff — though various sources told Fastmarkets they were adopting a “wait-and-see” attitude given the changing nature of Trump’s previous tariff announcements.
“We’re almost surviving off of rumors and educated guesses at this point,” a market participant told Fastmarkets on July 30 prior to the announcement.
“Tariffs come and go, but markets take years to build up,” a second market participant told Fastmarkets on July 29.
Both the US domestic and export copper scrap markets have been roiled by the impact that the implication of a potential tariff on copper has had on London Metal Exchange and COMEX trading; scrap pricing is derived heavily from exchange pricing, with domestic US sellers typically focused more on COMEX. The persistent arbitrage between the LME and COMEX has already begun to narrow, recording an almost 90% reduction in the short period following the announcement of the reprieve; a further snap back is expected.
The LME/COMEX arbitrage was hovering around $256.94 per tonne at the time of publication, from over $2,500 per tonne the day prior, based on the most-traded contracts.
Prior to the 50% tariff announcement, many market participants had expected a 25% tariff to be imposed on copper — but while it came as a surprise, Trump’s initial announcement was met with some skepticism.
“We’ve had so many other delays and setbacks that there’s still a possibility that things could change,” Fastmarkets analyst James Moore said on July 9.
On July 30, prior to the announcement, Marex analyst Ed Meir wrote “we still think that we should see a significant reduction in copper tariffs.”
John Gross, consultant and publisher of The Copper Journal wrote on July 27: “The upcoming week will be especially challenging, as tariffs may or may not kick in as advertised, or something entirely different or unexpected may come to pass.”
“Do we take Trump seriously; do we take him literally? Will he change his mind this afternoon or tomorrow morning? For a market that is import-dependent, is this really going to kick in on August 1?” a trader told Fastmarkets.
Additionally, US President Donald Trump announced a new 40% tariff on a wide range of Brazilian imports, in the afternoon of Wednesday July 30, citing what he described as “unprecedented threats to US national security, foreign policy and economic stability” posed by the current Brazilian government.
Trump’s choice to exempt Brazilian pig iron from ad valorem duty rates of 40% came as a sigh of relief to US market participants, sources told Fastmarkets
“Everyone was holding their breath,” a US pig iron source said.
The US pig iron source noted a notable increase in buying interest following the news.
“All customers who were scared to death will be in the market… We already got [a major US steelmaker] jumping into the market,” the US source said.
Though Brazilian pig iron imports will not face the US ad valorem tariffs, US buyers will still have to digest the 10% baseline tariff enacted earlier in 2025.
“10% tariff is still on,” the US source said.
However, the ad valorem exemption renewed a sense of optimism among US market sources hoping for duty free pig iron imports.
“There’s a hearing expected tomorrow for an appeal of the tariffs,” the US source said. “If the appeal is upheld, that means tariffs are deemed legal, but this then signals that pig iron will be added to the exemption list,” they continued.
“If it’s overturned, then the tariffs will come off, or it gets stayed again until the supreme court hears it,” the US source said.
The source anticipates price increases to come in the next week or so following the increased buying.
Need to stay on top of tariffs? At Fastmarkets we provide price data, news and market analysis across forest products, agriculture and metals commodities. Speak to a member of our team to find out more.