Vegoils price commentary: CPO extends losses with weakness in related oils and soybean oil down on product spreading

Crude palm oil (CPO) futures extended losses from the previous day on Thursday August 7, as weakness in related oils, caution over higher Malaysia stocks and profit-taking prevailed.

The most active October CPO futures contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell by 0.61% to close at 4,241 ringgit ($1,003) per tonne after trading between 4,225-4,280 ringgit per tonne through the day, little changed from the morning session, when it closed at 4,238 ringgit per tonne.

Chinese vegoil futures were mixed for a second day, with the most active September palm olein futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange falling by 0.33% to close at 8,950 yuan ($1,246) per tonne, while the equivalent soybean oil futures contract gained 0.55% or 46 yuan per tonne to close at 8,406 yuan per tonne.

The September rapeseed oil futures contract, meanwhile, also slipped by 0.84% to close at 9,496 yuan per tonne.

Market participants will be anticipating July’s supply and demand data release by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) on Monday August 11, with stocks expected to rise for a fifth straight month amid a firm production recovery and a smaller increase in exports from June.

In the cash market, CPO was traded to India at $1,122.50 per tonne CFR east coast India (ECI) for September shipment and $1,136 per tonne CFR ECI for October-December shipment, with offers toward the close of the day heard around $1,122.50-1,125.00 per tonne CFR west coast India (WCI) for August-shipment cargoes and discussions for September volumes at $1,120-1,130 per tonne CFR WCI.

CPO discussions out of Indonesia were heard at $1,075-1,080 per tonne FOB Indonesia for August shipment, while olein offers were heard around $1,040-1,045 per tonne FOB Indonesia, also for August.

Meanwhile, China’s vegetable oil imports in July were estimated at 534,000 tonnes according to data from the country’s customs agency, a 23% decline from June, while cumulative imports between January-July this year were at 3.72 million tonnes, a 9.9% decline from 4.13 million tonnes recorded in the same period a year earlier.

In the Americas, soybean oil futures moved down on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, mainly pressured by product spreading with stronger soybean meal, while an increase in US weekly exports limited part of the losses. Market participants monitored rumours on new developments for the US biofuels regulation.

The most liquid September CME soybean oil contract went down by 0.37% on the day to 53.60 cents per lb at 1pm US Eastern time.

US net soybean oil sales for 2024/25 rose sharply on the week to 7,000 tonnes, from 2,500 tonnes a week earlier, USDA data released on Thursday showed. The figure was within average market expectations, ranging from sales of 0-10,000 tonnes.

In the week to July 31, US soybean oil exports rose to 19,900 tonnes, from 9,100 tonnes a week earlier.

Participants kept in focus unconfirmed reports that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could potentially release a definition for the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) targets for 2026 at 5.6 billion gallons and its policy for Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs).

Market chatter also said that the EPA could remove the 50% penalty on Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits for imported feedstocks, which could potentially have impacts on soybean oil demand.

Meanwhile, soybean meal futures traded with gains on the CME, mainly supported by a climb in corn, soybean and wheat prices. Robust weekly exports data and a short-covering movement were also bullish.

US soybean meal sales rebound

US net soybean meal sales rebounded sharply from a marketing-year low in the prior weekly period, the USDA said.

Sales totaled 169,400 tonnes, up from 77,100 tonnes the week before, but down by 15% from the four-week average. The figure was within average market expectations in the range of 50,000-200,000 tonnes.

In the week to July 31, US soybean meal exports were up by 13% week on week to 314,400 tonnes from 311,100 tonnes, and up by 2% from the four-week average.

The September CME soybean meal contract went up by 1.43% on the day to $276.50 per short ton at 1pm US Eastern time.

In the physical market in South America, Argentine soybean oil for October, November and December loading traded at a discount of 5 cents per lb to October and December futures, with 1,000 tonnes changing hand for each loading month.

The September basis was assessed at a discount of 3.85 cents per lb to September futures in Argentina and 2.75 cents per lb in Argentina, both to September futures.

South American soybean meal premiums were unchanged to higher despite the uptick in CME futures.

The September basis was assessed at discounts of $5.50 per short ton in Brazil and $8.50 per ton in Argentina, both under September CME futures and both relatively unchanged on the day.

Brazilian soybean meal batches were heard traded for September loading at discounts of $4 and $5 per ton under September futures, and an unconfirmed trade for October was also heard at a discount of $2 per ton under October futures.

Rapeseed oil futures

As of 18:10 Central European Time, Euronext November rapeseed futures were trading at €473.25 ($552.05) per tonne, up by €3.50 per tonne from the previous session.

FOB Rotterdam rapeseed oil prices fell on Thursday.

In the August-September-October (ASO) period, offers were made lower, at €1,021-1,025 per tonne compared with €1,038-1050 per tonne on Wednesday August 6, while bids fell to €1,015-1,020 per tonne compared with €1,023-1,028 per tonne on Wednesday.

For the November-December-January (NDJ) window, offers were made lower at €1,021-1,029 per tonne compared with €1,037-1,045 per tonne on Wednesday, while bids were made at €1,015-1,020 per tonne compared with €1,025-1,035 per tonne on Wednesday.

No rapeseed oil trades were heard on Thursday.

FOB sunflower oil values across six EU ports were stable on Thursday.

September offers were absent, with bids at $1,244 per tonne, compared with $1,260 per tonne and $1,250 per tonne respectively on Wednesday.

For the October-November-December (OND) window, offers were made at $1,225 per tonne with bids at $1,200 per tonne, compared with offers of $1,220-1,225 per tonne and bids of $1,200.00-1207.50 per tonne on Wednesday.

No Sunflower oil trades were reported to Fastmarkets on Thursday.

The Black Sea sunflower oil market continued to tighten on Thursday, as sellers further pulled back and available offers became increasingly scarce amid signs of revived Indian demand.

Russia-origin offers for August-September were reported to be fading, while Ukrainian sellers also remained absent from the Turkish market – deepening the supply shortage and reinforcing a seller-driven tone.

In the domestic market, spot CPT Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC) bids held steady at $1,155-1,163 per tonne, though physical trading was restrained by ongoing uncertainty and tight seed availability.

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