Hotline’s earlier musings on the aluminium market impact of the Scottish independence referendum has sparked a flurry of further speculation. Best of the bunch was the analyst that suggested Scotland could become the next aluminium manufacturing hub, a la the Middle East.
Best of the bunch so far was the analyst that suggested Scotland could become the next aluminium manufacturing hub, a la the Middle East.
Read the earlier piece here
“Another possibility could be that Scotland decides to become a manufacturing hub to use all that oil/wind/wave energy to make ingot and semis, exporting the final product,” the analyst said.
If Scotland votes yes on independence, it will no longer be a part of the EU. This means Scottish aluminium would be subject to import duties into Europe, but would also mean Scottish energy prices will be free of European influence.
If the country can rustle up enough cheap “oil/wind/wave energy”, it could make competitive aluminium production more feasible. Freight costs would be a fraction of those for Middle East material coming to Europe, and the dependency on imports among European buyers will provide fantastic demand.
Expect feasibility studies for a 1 million-tpy aluminium mega-smelter on the Clyde to swiftly follow if there’s a yes vote on independence.
Could totally happen.