2021 European Containerboard Mills Outlook: Current Competitiveness and Medium-Term Risk Scenarios

A strong containerboard market is driving record high prices and operating rates in Western and Central Europe. Understand the potential and the risks.

These are appealing times for producers to expand capacity, whether by installing new machines, machine conversions or mill acquisitions.

While singly most projects make sense, all of them together may lead to regional overcapacity. Which containerboard grades and producers are at greatest risk in a potentially weakening market?

This timely study estimates the likelihood of two potential outcomes for all major Western and Central European containerboard assets:

  • Forced closure and potential takeover
  • Voluntary closure or other capacity reduction

What are the options for Europe’s containerboard producers?

Many containerboard producers must evaluate the future competitiveness of their operations. Will they survive on their current strategy, or:

  • Upgrade the ageing equipment? The average technical age of European containerboard machines is 27 years.
  • Increase “swing” capacity? 23% of European containerboard machines also produce other paper or board grades.
  • Divest some of the liquid assets?
  • Shut down some machines completely?
  • Consolidate with another producer?

Get comparative metrics for each facility’s asset quality

  • Capacities
  • Product mix
  • Technical age of machines
  • Importance for the company

See how mills rank for cost competitiveness

  • Cash cost estimates
  • Utilities cost estimates
  • Direct cost estimates
  • Financial risk evaluation

Consider other relevant factors for facilities and companies

  • Swing product portfolio
  • Corrugating integration
  • Recovered paper supply
  • Risk of closure

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What’s happening in the forest products market today?

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has had a pronounced impact on the packaging industry across the GCC region, sending March containerboard prices and demand soaring. With shipping routes disrupted and fuel costs climbing, packaging producers are facing considerable logistical hurdles. As import delays persist, Saudi Arabia has seen a surge in containerboard demand, with orders increasingly redirected to local mills. Meanwhile, UAE fuel prices have jumped by 72%, though Saudi prices have remained stable despite volatility in global oil markets.

The EU-Mercosur trade agreement, set to take provisional effect in 2026, aims to reduce trade barriers between the two regions. However, the deal faces significant opposition from environmental groups and EU agricultural sectors. For the pulp and paper industry, the effects will be phased in over several years, with an analysis by Cepi showing that tariff reductions will be gradual, eventually benefiting about 85% of EU pulp exports and 90% of paper and board exports.

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