Global Pellet Demand Outlook 2021

High energy prices are powering strong demand for heating fuel alternatives and renewable energy policies are leading power plants to swap pellets for coal. How will these forces affect global wood pellet demand through 2031?

Charting the growth trajectory of wood pellet demand, this new outlook analyses key drivers behind demand and provides a 10-year demand forecast for Europe, Asia and North America.

Demand for wood pellets, used for power generation and heating, are influenced by regional and global trends. This outlook can help biomass pellet producers, energy companies, utilities, shippers, and investors to analyze:

  • Country-level renewable energy goal and biomass support policies like the impact of biomass subsidy expiration in the UK, the Netherland’s phase-out of coal and other key policies.
  • Energy markets and weather trends. Weather events and oil/gas prices can affect the competitiveness of biomass heat.
  • The resilience of pellets during pandemic downturned economies.

How could major policy changes impact the industry? We’ve analyzed factors like:

  • Policy updates in the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, Japan and South Korea that will influence industrial pellet demand.
  • The future prospects of key power plants utilizing pellets in the UK, Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium.
  • How the weather and global energy prices have impacted the European and North American heating markets.
  • How the closure of 15.3 GW of coal-fired capacity in South Korea will impact pellet demand.

Included in this outlook:

  • 2021-2031 forecast for 16 key countries /regions that consume wood pellets for heating and industrial uses.
  • Detailed outlooks for industrial and heating use.
  • Policy developments and implications in key markets
  • Major projects using industrial pellets and their projected consumptions.
  • Pellet appliance shipment and stock outlook for key heating markets.
  • Global energy price forecast and trade data.
  • Impact of COVID-19

Request more information


What’s happening in the forest products market today?

Explore the implications of the 50% tariff on the pulp market, impacting trade dynamics and costs for industries reliant on pulp.

Understand how recent tariff decisions are affecting the European pulp and paper industry and trade with the US market.

Fastmarkets has had a strong interest in the proposed new assessments and would like to gather additional information on the specification and grades that should assess.  Based on the feedback, the proposed specifications have been updated as follows:  Quality: Selected Nordic (Swedish, Finnish, Norwegian) export grades of both planed and rough sawn timber spruce (whitewood) […]

While Fastmarkets understands that the PIX sawn timber FAS Finland indices have not been widely adopted by the industry, we have received feedback that there is commercial use for the indices. Therefore, we propose to maintain them for the time being.  The following indices are affected:  The extended consultation period for this proposed discontinuation starts […]

Learn about PCA’s strategic acquisition of Greif’s containerboard business and its impact on the packaging industry.

Full details of the prices covered by this consultation can be found here: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/open-consultation-on-annual-methodology-review-for-global-pulp-pricing-notice/ During the consultation, Fastmarkets requested comments on whether current discount levels for US market pulp have grown too high and invited open-ended feedback on potential remedies moving forward. Feedback from the industry was mixed. Potential remedies suggested by the industry included […]

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region prices for recycled fiber-based containerboard (RCCM) were mostly stable to down in June, according to data reported for Fastmarkets’ PIX indices published on Tuesday July 1. The indices covering locally produced brown testliner and fluting dipped. Fastmarkets calculated its PIX Testliner GCC index down by $2.76 per tonne, or 0.58%, […]

A major merger and acquisition (M&A) wave, conservatively estimated to exceed €450 million ($516 million) in deal value across European sawn timber markets—including over €160 million in disclosed deals plus several large undisclosed transactions and recent distressed asset acquisitions—signals a fundamental shift toward market concentration that could likely reduce pricing volatility while creating new competitive dynamics favoring integrated participants and Baltic production hubs.

My last Viewpoint at the end of February provided some thoughts on the outlook for Asian paper and board markets in 2025, and it highlighted three areas of concern that could hold back growth: the trade war, China’s sluggish economy and inflation. Fast forward four months and a lot has happened, especially related to the trade war. In this Viewpoint, I provide my latest thoughts on developments in these three areas and then drill down specifically on the containerboard market and look at what has happened and where things are going.

Explore the future of containerboard prices with our analysis from the Fastmarkets Paper Packaging Monitor on demand recovery.