Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Market outlook to 2025 and beyond

In recognition of SAF’s role in the future of aviation, and potential for rapidly demand growth, we brought together a team of experts from agriculture, energy and forest markets to explore the outlook to 2025, answering key questions.

The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is entering a period of unprecedented growth. It has emerged as a viable means to decarbonize aviation. Today, SAF is 2-3 times more expensive than its conventional jet fuel counterpart and is only produced by a handful of players, who will need to significantly ramp up production volume to meet this demand.

Key questions addressed in the report:

  • How will SAF demand grow to 2025?
  • What is the supply potential and cost for key raw materials, by region and globally?
  • What will be the most important drivers of SAF demand?
  • How is SAF made and what raw materials are required?
  • Who are the main producers, and owners of projects for new capacity?

This study will help you and your business to:

  • Size up the market – Translate latest regulatory announcements and air travel projections into future size of SAF market
  • See the whole supply chain – Understand the existing supply chain and supply challenges
  • Get a financer’s view – Understand the factors in financing biorefinery projects
  • Seize future opportunities – Identify future leading SAF producers and profile biorefinery projects by player, partner, financier, capacity growth, and process technology
  • Plan for supply fluctuations – Anticipate the cost impact of additional demand for raw materials, such as used cooking oil, soybean, sugarcane, corn grain, wood biomass, agricultural residues from crop and food processing
  • Find the best solution – Compare the different supply chains and future cost of each of the four main processes to produce SAF

Future success depends on maintaining cost advantage over electricity and hydrogen

Current operational production capacity will only deliver 3% of total demand in 2025. Project owners will be racing to secure feedstock volume and pricing that ensures SAF continues to be a cost effective means to reduced emissions from aviation. Used cooking oil (UCO), the primary feedstock for SAF, is expected to make up to 60% of production by 2025.

  • Sustainable aviation fuel is taking off
    • Many airlines have committed to net-zero emissions by 2050
    • 7 out of 10 consumers say reducing emissions should be a top priority for aviation
    • The European Union introduced ReFuelEU Aviation Initiative in 2021 to reduce emissions by 55% from 1990 levels by 2030, which will accelerate the shift to renewable sources of energy
    • The US is building on state-level legislation in WA, CA, OR. The federal mandate and tax rebate is moving to the Senate after passing in the House
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