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New Section 232 tariffs (10%, stacked on 35% Canadian duties) are reshaping North American lumber markets, with volatility expected to persist into 2028/2029. Canadian mills face continued financial stress, though some duty relief is anticipated in late 2026.
2025 saw weaker-than-expected demand and rising inventories, but a rebound is forecast for 2026 as US housing starts and repair/remodeling (R&R) activity improve.
Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) remains discounted due to oversupply, but this gap should narrow as demand recovers. Sawmill capacity growth is slowing, with further rationalization expected, especially in British Columbia.
Despite near-term headwinds, easing interest rates and reduced trade uncertainty should support a mild recovery. Prices are expected to appreciate in the low single digits for most dimensional items.
Fastmarkets’ data and forecasts are essential for navigating ongoing volatility, planning inventory, and identifying opportunities as the market rebalances.