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Copper concentrates market participants gathered at CESCO Week 2026 said the pace of market change had left them unable to plan more than a few weeks ahead, with China’s incoming sulfuric acid export ban and geopolitical conflict compounding uncertainty.
“Last year was about tariffs and trying to predict the year ahead. Now I don’t know what’s going on next month [or] next week,” a Chinese market participant told Fastmarkets on April 15.
“With the Middle East conflict continuing, I can’t think of a scenario [for copper TC/RCs to go down] other than a geyser explosion of copper coming from the ground,” a UK-based trader said, adding that they saw no scenario for copper prices to fall while the Iran tensions continued.
Against that backdrop, here are ten themes that defined the week:
China’s planned ban on sulfuric acid exports from May 1 was the single most discussed topic at CESCO Week 2026, according to traders, miners and smelters.
On April 10, China reportedly indicated it would halt sulfuric acid exports from May, covering sulfuric acid produced as a by-product of copper and zinc smelting in the country. Prices had already been rising since the start of the Iran war, with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz blocking sulfur shipments from the Middle East, which produces one third of the world’s sulfur.
A European smelter and a North American trader noted sulfuric acid being quoted at $400 per tonne for export qualities and that prices could go higher.
“We don’t have any acid to sell,” the smelter said. “People are trying to buy acid from us. We are worried the situation in Iran will last longer. Even if the conflict is over soon, it will still take time because the infrastructure for transporting acid has been damaged.”
Market participants said they could not identify a floor for copper concentrates treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), which had already broken through the $(100) per tonne threshold for the first time in history in the week to April 2.
Fastmarkets calculated the weekly copper concentrates TC index, cif Asia Pacific — the midpoint between smelter and trader buying levels — at $(102.70) per tonne on Friday, down by $1.70 per tonne from $(101.00) per tonne a week prior.
A second European trader said spot terms were likely to push lower from current levels. “If smelters are ramping up flotation rates, the deficit can’t carry. By-products and acid can influence [the market], but for the time being it’s a one-way market,” the second European trader said.
Multiple traders told Fastmarkets during the week that they heard of a concentrate deal done at $(100) per tonne to a Chinese smelter, though Fastmarkets could not independently confirm the transaction, or whether it had precious metal credits baked into the TC/RCs. One mining source said he did not hear such a deal.
The industry’s annual benchmark system showed further signs of fragmentation.
The European smelter did not confirm having settled a number with Antofagasta Minerals. “We did very individual settlements with our suppliers involving [specific] tonnages for our [books],” they said. “Different settlements were reached. Valid for large parts of our industry, apparently, are the settlements in Japan, Europe [and] elsewhere. Chinese smelters agreed to zero.”
The same smelter questioned the relevance of a single number in the current market. “It can’t cover all the deals in the world, can’t reflect all the geographies [and] qualities between partners, because there can always be adjustments on side terms, volume decreases, increases. The details are usually not known, apart from [an] aggregated number, [which] doesn’t reflect [reality] to the extent which it should.”
Miners at the gathering took a different view. The first mining source said that most peers had told him they wanted a general benchmark to preserve a pricing reference across regions. “Most people we spoke to said [they] want a benchmark, except [the] Japanese — they want their own benchmark,” they said.
“Previously [it was] easier to have [a] single number and plus-minus depending on region. [Selling] to China, Europe, India [without a benchmark] will complicate things,” the first mining source said.
They added that if Chinese smelters accepted zero, other regions would struggle to hold a different line.
Market participants said Chinese and Indian smelter expansions were continuing despite the historically negative TC/RC environment, with no smelter closures identified during the week.
A third European trader said that Chinese smelter Jinchuan was buying for its phase two commissioning in the second half of 2026, following earlier buying campaigns by Tongling and Jinlong.
“Everything in the market is [about] what they’re doing,” the third trader said. “[Last year when] Jinlong had the new project, they were the ones buying. This year [we had] Tongling to start with, and now Jinchuan. After that, you would have Shandong [and] Shanghai [projects] coming up.”
Hindalco Industries — the copper operations of Aditya Birla — said on April 12 that it was running at full capacity and expected cathode production of approximately 419,000 tonnes for fiscal year 2026, with plans to expand to around 800,000 tonnes per year of cathode output by 2028 through concentrate, blister, anode and scrap feed.
The Chinese attendee said no Chinese smelters were closing, and that the [10%] production cut announced by the China Smelter Purchase Team (CSPT) had not translated into visible action. “We don’t see any real actions or obvious [cuts] as far as I know.”
Market participants identified elevated sulfuric acid prices and precious metals by-product revenues as the main reason smelters were continuing to operate and expand despite negative TC/RCs.
The smelter said the combination was masking underlying stress. “As long as [sulfuric acid] prices are high, smelters maintain their intake and production levels. As long as they can still earn something, they keep buying [concentrate]. It still makes sense to fill smelters with feed to produce copper. If they keep capacity full, they can produce and sell cathodes with premiums.”
A second North American trader said the current environment had inverted the traditional purpose of TC/RCs. “The environment we’re in right now is [one where] by-products [and] free metal help smelters absorb [the shock]… Smelters are fragile [right now],” they said.
Fastmarkets is currently seeking market feedback on proposed changes to the weighting of its Asia copper concentrates TC index, including a dynamic weighting process based on reported tonnage, and on the normalization of gold and silver byproduct credits. The feedback period closes on May 22.
Traders and smelters said SX-EW (solvent extraction-electrowinning) operations in Chile and Africa were the most exposed to the Chinese export ban and broader sulfur supply disruption.
An analyst said Chile was the most exposed jurisdiction. “A lot of higher-cost Chilean operations [have] demand [at risk] — the SX-EW operations. Codelco have got their own supply of sulfuric acid. They’re long acid [and] they sell within Chile. Antofagasta is the shortest.”
Chile buys more than 1 million tonnes of Chinese sulfuric acid annually and around a fifth of Chilean copper output involves processing that depends on sulfuric acid, according to sources.
A second mining source from South America said total Chilean sulfuric acid consumption was around 8 to 8.5 million tonnes per year, with 3 to 4 million tonnes imported annually. He said Chinese exports to Chile had fallen from 1.4 million tonnes to around 1 million tonnes.
Market participants said the ban was primarily a response to sulfur scarcity caused by the Iran conflict, with a Japanese investor noting that the Chinese planting season was almost over.
The Chinese participant said domestic policy prioritized fertilizer supply for agriculture regardless of the commodity cycle, describing agriculture as “a pillar of the Chinese economy relating to social stability.”
Chile’s incoming government of President José Antonio Kast, who took office on March 11, was another recurring topic, particularly around the upcoming leadership change at state-owned copper producer Codelco.
Chilean Mining Minister Daniel Mas said on April 13 that the administration had already chosen a successor to Máximo Pacheco as Codelco chairman, with the announcement to be made between Codelco’s April 20 shareholder meeting and the May 26 end of Pacheco’s term.
The Kast administration was said to be targeting Chilean copper production of 6 million tonnes per year within four to five years, versus state copper commission Cochilco’s prior projection of 2033 to hit that level, according to media reports.
Several market participants flagged the March 26 removal of Enami head Ivan Mlynarz, with Javiera Estrada named interim executive vice president, as part of the broader political reshuffle.
South American participants were closely tracking Peru’s presidential runoff on June 7 between leftist Juntos por el Perú candidate Roberto Sánchez and conservative Keiko Fujimori.
Some CESCO Week participants said they were concerned that a Sánchez victory could bring nationalization of Peruvian copper assets into question.
Traders said the COMEX-LME copper arbitrage had reopened during CESCO Week, with the most active COMEX copper futures trading at a premium of more than $100 per tonne over the LME benchmark at the end of the previous week, and the South American physical premium rising to almost four times from $0-$50 a week earlier. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is due to update US President Donald Trump on potential copper tariff proposals by the end of June.
The second European trader said the current cathode market dynamic was unusually bullish. “China is pulling [material]. Every time there’s a positive swing in speculative activity on copper, it has an outsized benefit to COMEX over LME… American hedge funds don’t want to touch the LME because of the date structure.”
They added that a Section 232 announcement at the end of June with a January 2027 application date would see the market price in “all cathode in the world going into the US.”
The second North American trader said he expected tariffs to return to the conversation ahead of the June deadline.
A second European trader said seismic activity at Newmont’s Cadia operation in New South Wales, Australia had pushed the mine’s concentrate tender back to July. Newmont suspended underground operations at Cadia earlier in April following a magnitude-4.5 earthquake.
Views diverged on how much relief the restart of First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panamá mine would bring to the concentrate market. The second European trader said Cobre Panamá was preparing to process the millions of tonnes of ore already on site, with approximately 70,000 tonnes of contained copper expected to reach the market over two quarters. They added that the material could ease the concentrate market, particularly in the fourth quarter, “unless Jiangxi has [an] agreement” for the tonnes.
Other participants were more cautious on the restart’s impact. The investor said the Cobre Panamá tonnes were likely destined for Korea, China and Germany, which would limit the material reaching the custom market.
The first trader said that even if the mine ramped to full capacity, the scale of the Chinese concentrate deficit would absorb the extra tonnes easily.
The analyst said Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo was producing concentrate with low sulfur content and less anode than originally forecast, but that the material was not available to the seaborne market because it was being supplied to the on-site smelter. “They’re not allowed to sell [the] concentrates — they have to [process it] in-house. They supply it locally.”
Market participants will next gather in Hong Kong for LME Asia Week, with the LME Asia Metals Seminar scheduled for May 7. By then, several of the week’s open questions such as China’s sulfuric acid export ban and the Peruvian presidential runoff may have begun to resolve, sources said.
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