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A Fastmarkets review of first-quarter 2026 results from eight copper producers found that declining ore grades were the most common driver of lower concentrate output, even as record copper prices pushed earnings across the sector to new highs.
The production shortfalls come as Fastmarkets calculated the weekly copper concentrates TC index, cif Asia Pacific – the midpoint between smelter and trader buying levels – at $(128.70) per tonne on Friday May 15, down by $7.70 per tonne from $(121.00) per tonne a week earlier.
MMG stood out among the companies reviewed. Its Las Bambas mine in Peru produced 101,003 tonnes of copper in concentrate in the first quarter of 2026, up 6% year on year, supported by improved metallurgical recovery and steady milled grades of 0.88% copper, the company said in its April 21 production report.
Khoemacau in Botswana produced 10,660 tonnes of copper in concentrate, in line with the prior year, while ore milled grades improved to 1.63% from 1.56%.
MMG achieved C1 costs of $0.45 per pound at Las Bambas and $1.25 per pound at Khoemacau – both significantly below full-year guidance – largely due to higher by-product credits from gold and silver, according to the production report.
Capstone Copper reported sulfide copper production – copper in concentrate – of 40,875 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, down by 11% from 45,950 tonnes a year earlier, the company said on April 29. The decline was primarily due to a 35-day strike at Mantoverde in Chile, which commenced in early January and was resolved on February 5, as well as lower feed grades at Mantos Blancos and Cozamin.
Mantoverde‘s sulfide production fell to 13,733 tonnes from 16,268 tonnes, while Mantos Blancos declined to 10,501 tonnes from 12,272 tonnes due to lower sulfide feed grades.
Capstone said higher grades of approximately 0.85% are expected to return in 2027. Cozamin produced 5,930 tonnes, down 9% year on year, on lower feed grades.
Hudbay Minerals produced 27,929 tonnes of copper in concentrate across its three operations in the first quarter of 2026, down from 30,958 tonnes a year earlier, the company said on May 1. The decline reflected the depletion of the higher-grade Pampacancha deposit at the end of 2025, with Peru operations producing 20,573 tonnes and British Columbia’s Copper Mountain producing 4,821 tonnes.
Copper Mountain milled grades fell to 0.20% from 0.33% in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting the planned mining sequence ahead of the completion of an accelerated stripping program in 2026 that is expected to unlock higher-grade ore.
Ero Copper produced 17,287 tonnes of copper in concentrate from its two Brazilian operations in the first quarter of 2026, the company said on May 4. Caraíba produced 8,826 tonnes at a processed grade of 0.93%, down from 1.18% a year earlier. Tucumã produced 8,461 tonnes at a grade of 1.66%, which was lower than the 1.93% in the fourth quarter of 2025
Taseko Mines reported Gibraltar copper production of 30.0 million pounds (approximately 13,600 tonnes) in the first quarter of 2026, including 29.2 million pounds in concentrate, the company said on May 6. Output was up by 50% year on year, though the comparison is against a weak base in the first quarter of 2025 when head grades were 0.19%.
Atlas Consolidated Mining in the Philippines reported 26,000 dry metric tonnes of copper concentrate from its subsidiary Carmen Copper Corp., a 19% decline year on year, the Philippine Daily Inquirer reported on April 28. Atlas attributed the performance to its subsidiary’s ongoing three-year redevelopment program, which is in its final year.
Atico Mining produced 2.09 million pounds (approximately 948 tonnes) of copper in concentrates from its El Roble mine in Colombia, down by 6% from the first quarter of 2025, driven by lower copper head grades of 1.86% compared with 1.97% and lower recoveries, the company said on April 28.
Buenaventura reported copper production of 10,898 tonnes from its direct operations in Peru, predominantly from the El Brocal mine (61.43% owned), which produced 10,811 tonnes, the company said on April 16. Copper production exceeded projections due to higher grades from stopes rescheduled from the fourth quarter of 2025.
Buenaventura also sold 2,248 tonnes of copper concentrate on the spot market through its trading arm, sourced from Freeport-McMoRan’s Cerro Verde operation, in which Buenaventura holds a 19.58% stake.
A common theme across the results was widespread ore grade deterioration at operations producing copper concentrate. In most cases, miners attributed the declines to planned mine sequencing rather than unexpected geological shortfalls.
Capstone said higher grades at Mantos Blancos are not expected until 2027. Hudbay said higher grades at Copper Mountain should come in late 2026 following the completion of its accelerated stripping program. Ero said full-year production at both Caraíba and Tucumã is expected to be weighted toward the second half on higher processed grades.
The trend was not universal. MMG’s Las Bambas maintained steady grades of 0.88%, while Khoemacau’s grades improved to 1.63% from 1.56%. Taseko’s Gibraltar grades also rose to 0.25% from 0.19%.
Despite the production declines, the first quarter of 2026 was a record quarter financially for several producers, driven by copper prices well above year-earlier levels.
Hudbay reported record quarterly revenue of $757.3 million, adjusted EBITDA of $421.9 million, and adjusted net earnings of $159.1 million. Consolidated cash cost reached a record low of negative $1.80 per pound of copper, net of by-product credits, the company said.
Capstone posted record adjusted EBITDA of $329.1 million, up by 83% from $179.9 million a year earlier, marking its sixth consecutive quarterly record.
Ero Copper reported adjusted EBITDA of $125.2 million, nearly double the $63.2 million in the first quarter of 2025.
Taseko reported adjusted EBITDA of C$93.5 million, up by 172% from C$34.4 million in the first quarter of 2025, and net income of C$16.8 million, reversing a net loss of C$28.6 million.
Atlas Mining reported EBITDA of P2.17 billion, up by 122% year on year, and net income of P645 million, reversing a net loss of P404 million, supported by a 34% increase in copper prices to $5.77 per pound.
The negative TC/RC environment was reflected clearly in several producers’ cost structures.
Hudbay’s consolidated treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) fell to $3.1 million ($0.05 per pound) in the first quarter of 2026 from $14.0 million ($0.21 per pound) a year earlier. In Peru, the line item turned negative at -$1.6 million, implying the company received a net credit rather than paying TCs.
Taseko said its offtake agreements for Gibraltar contain “low and, in certain cases, negative TC/RC rates, reflecting the continued tight copper smelting market.” The company expects TC/RCs to remain “nominal in 2026, similar to 2025,” and said it could tender additional 2027 tonnes to capitalize on favorable spot rates.
Capstone reported lower treatment and selling costs at Pinto Valley (down $0.05 per pound year on year) and Cozamin (down $0.06 per pound).
MMG noted in its production report that spot TC/RCs averaged negative $79.50 per tonne during the first quarter of 2026, “moving further into negative territory and reaching record lows in March.” The figure is consistent with Fastmarkets‘ quarterly average for its copper concentrates TC index, cif Asia Pacific, which averaged $(79.54) per tonne in the first quarter of 2026.
The company also noted that the CSPT decided not to issue spot purchasing TC/RC guidance for Q2 2026, and that Mitsubishi Materials announced the cessation of concentrate processing at its Onahama smelter “due to adverse market conditions.”
Rising input costs were a recurring theme across the results, particularly for sulfuric acid, diesel and explosives, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Capstone disclosed that sulfuric acid prices rose to $196 per tonne in the first quarter of 2026 from $176 per tonne a year earlier. The company expects to consume approximately 590,000 tonnes over the remainder of 2026, with 55% locked in at $185 per tonne CFR Chile and 45% exposed to variable pricing.
Taseko reported diesel costs up by $5.3 million and explosives costs up by $6.1 million compared with the first quarter of 2025.
Higher precious metals prices, however, provided a significant offset across the board. At Capstone’s Cozamin, silver by-product credits reduced C1 cash costs by $0.91 per pound year on year. Taseko’s molybdenum credit was $0.62 per pound. Hudbay’s total by-product credits reached $382.1 million in the first quarter of 2026, up from $284.7 million, contributing to its record-low cash costs.
Several producers are advancing projects that would add copper concentrate supply, but timelines suggest no near-term relief for the tight market.
Capstone’s MV optimized expansion at Mantoverde will increase concentrator throughput from 32,000 to 45,000 tonnes per day, adding approximately 20,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate per year at an estimated capital cost of $176 million. Tie-ins are scheduled for the third quarter of 2026, with sustained throughput expected from early 2027, the company said. Capstone is also targeting a final investment decision on the $2.3 billion Santo Domingo project in the fourth quarter of 2026.
MMG’s Khoemacau expansion in Botswana is progressing toward an annual production capacity of 130,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate by 2028, with potential for 200,000 tonnes over time. A groundbreaking ceremony was held in February 2026, and first concentrate production remains on track for the first half of 2028, MMG said.
Hudbay’s Copper World definitive feasibility study is on track for completion in mid-2026, with a project sanctioning decision expected later in 2026. The company’s three-year production outlook projects a 24% increase in consolidated copper production through 2028.
Ero Copper is advancing the Furnas Copper-Gold Project in Brazil, with more than 12,000 meters drilled in the first quarter as part of a planned 50,000-meter program. A project update is expected in mid-2026, but production remains years away.
Taseko’s Florence Copper operation produced 1.5 million pounds of copper cathode in the first quarter and is targeting 30-35 million pounds in 2026 – but as an in-situ recovery operation producing cathode, it does not contribute to the copper concentrate market.
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