APEX Q3 2019: Bank Muscat tops base metals prediction leaderboard

AS Mauskar and N Bhavsar of Bank Muscat led the base metals leaderboard again in the Apex third-quarter 2019 contest, with an accuracy rating of 96.9%, while UBS’ Glyn Lawcock was top of the precious metals table with a rating of 97.6%.

For steel raw materials, Fastmarkets was at the top of the leaderboard at 90.6% accuracy.

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Second on the base metals leaderboard was SP Angel with 96.1% accuracy, followed by UBS’ Glyn Lawcock in third at 96.1%.

Jefferies Chris LaFemina was in fourth place with a score of 95.9% while Emirates’ Edward Bell was in fifth place at 95.7%.

There was reduced uncertainty in forecasts for base metals prices other than tin and nickel from the previous quarter’s record-high spreads. There was a sharp increase especially in nickel - there is currently a 12% spread among collected one-year forecasts. Conversely, consensus was greatest in zinc and lead compared to previous quarters and with the other base metals.

Individual base metals winners
The winner of the third-quarter Fastmarkets’ Apex contest for aluminium was Chris LaFemina of Jefferies with an accuracy rating of 99.89%. CLSA’s Andrew Driscoll took first place for copper with an impressive 100.00% accuracy.

Precious metals winners
In the precious metals table, Commerzbank was second with an accuracy of 97.0% after UBS Glyn Lawcock. TD Securities’ Bart Melek was third at 96.7%.

SP Angel’s J Meyer, S Raevskiy and S Beardsmore placed fourth in Fastmarkets’ third-quarter Apex precious metals contest with an accuracy rating of 96.3%, while INTL FCStone’s Edward Meir came fifth with a rating of 95.3%.

Uncertainty remains high for silver and especially for palladium but there was greater consensus in gold and platinum.

Individual precious metals winners
The winner of the gold price prediction contest was Commerzbank with 98.4% accuracy.

Morningstar was first with its silver prediction for the third quarter at 96.9% accuracy, while SP Angel analysts J Mayer, S Raevskiy and S Beardsmore topped the palladium contest with 99.4% accuracy.

Steel raw materials winners

Fastmarkets was first in the overall steel raw materials leaderboard for the third quarter with 90.6% accuracy, followed by SP Angel’s J Meyer, S Raevskiy and S Beardsmore with 88.1% accuracy.

In third place was ABN Amro’s Casper Burgering at 87.3%, followed by Morningstar in fourth place with 87.2%. Tracy Liao at Citi placed fifth with an accuracy rating of 87.1%.

Commerzbank came in first place in the iron ore leaderboard for the third quarter with 99.9% accuracy. Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari of ANZ placed first in the coking coal predictions with 88.5%.

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