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Brazil’s boxboard market showed unexpected resilience at the close of 2025, holding firm even as demand softened and imports intensified. We explore the factors behind this resilience and what they reveal about boxboard prices heading into 2026.
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Brazilian boxboard prices remained stable between October and November 2025, under pressure from continued competition from imports and weaker demand, Fastmarkets heard from several industry sources on Tuesday, November 18.
This was despite the typically stronger seasonal environment in the second half of the year, when festive activities usually support consumption.
According to market participants, domestic boxboard suppliers were struggling to keep prices stable while buyers renewed their pressure for further reductions, driven by the continued influx of imported products. As a result, some discounts were granted over the two-month period, although domestic prices overall remained largely steady.
“There are many buyers launching new bids and trying to push prices down,” a source said, adding that some medium- and small-sized boxboard buyers were starting to accept imported products. “This movement could put downward pressure on domestic prices next year,” the source added.
Amid strong and continuing pressure from imported products, Brasil Virgin Based Duplex 190-375 g/m² was traded at 7,000-7,400 Reais ($1,316-1,391) per tonne, 2.1% higher compared with the corresponding period last year and stable on a two-month basis.
“We are seeing greater competition in virgin duplex, both from integrated domestic producers and from the entry of imported products,” a second market source said.
Recycled boxboard prices were unchanged. Prices for 100% Recycled Duplex 190-375 g/m2 were estimated at 5,500-5,800 Reais per tonne in October-November, flat year on year.
On the other hand, Brazil Recycled Duplex 190-375 g/m2, which includes a share of virgin pulp, traded at 5,800-6,400 Reais per tonne, a 0.8% year-on-year increase.
The recycled boxboard sector has also come under pressure from European imports, according to a third market source.
This market participant said that products from Italy and Turkey have been entering Brazil at competitive prices, though not as deeply as prices from Asia. “It’s a challenging sector as well. Prices are depressed and supply remains high,” the source said.
Several market participants said that the drop reflected higher competition during the period, with Chinese market participants pricing at very low levels and challenging traditional suppliers in foreign markets.
Triplex 210-370 g/m² prices remained at 7,800-8,400 Reais per tonne in October-November, up by 6.6% year on year. Regarding this product, Fastmarkets has learned that some market participants had lower prices in specific offers during the period, but most transactions remained stable.
While domestic boxboard prices were stable, the price for imported 250-320 g/m² triplex board, delivered Brazil, fell by 3.8% to $720-800 per tonne in October-November compared with the previous two-month period.
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But industry sources indicated that pressure for price increases was expected to intensify in the near future, because current prices have become unsustainable.
“This move is primarily driven by increased costs of key raw materials in Asia, particularly woodchip,” a fourth source said, noting that prices were being adjusted due to the climate crisis affecting Southeast Asia.
Fastmarkets learned that APP, one of the leading global suppliers of boxboard, announced a $30 per tonne price increase with immediate effect in November for Brazil and other regions in South America.
Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) decided on November 12 to approve an increase in import tariffs to 16% from 12.6% on a specific product under Mercosur Common Nomenclature (NCM) code 4810.29.90, which is classified as “other” boxboard products.
In September, two other products (NCM 4810.19.99 and 4810.92.90) had already had their import tariffs raised to 16% from 12.6%. According to market participants, the increase in the import tax on this new NCM was intended mainly to equalize the tariff with the other two products, preventing the risk of a potential shift in demand toward this item.
Fastmarkets found that there was a general consensus among global market participants, domestic producers and buyers that the measure should not lead to significant changes in the market.
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