MethodologyContact usSupportLogin
EU importers pulled forward huge volumes of unwrought aluminium and hot-rolled coil into the final weeks of 2025 to clear customs before the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its definitive phase on 1 January 2026. Trade data through February 2026 shows a sharp reversal, but the December spike was so large that excess units were likely still working through European supply chains.
EU27[1] imports of unwrought aluminium remained steady between 280-360 kt per month through most of 2024 and 2025. In December 2025, volumes surged to 675 kt – over 2x the 2024 average and over 3x December 2024 volumes. Imports then collapsed by 79% to 143 kt in January 2026 and remained below the pre-CBAM level at 183 kt in February.
Figure 1: EU27 monthly unwrought aluminium imports
Import data leave little doubt that CBAM was a key driver. December’s spike in unwrought aluminium imports was concentrated in countries that face material CBAM exposure under default values: Canada at 175 kt, Mozambique 105 kt, and Bahrain 85 kt, with CBAM-exempt Norway and Iceland running close to their normal levels.
By January 2026, volumes from the CBAM-exposed regions had collapsed – Canada to roughly 10 kt, Mozambique to near zero, and Bahrain to 19 kt – while Norwegian imports rose. The pattern is a clear front-loading response. EU ETS-linked countries maintained steady volumes, whereas third-countries compressed months of normal trade into the final pre-CBAM window.
“EU ETS-linked countries maintained steady volumes, whereas third-countries compressed months of normal trade into the final pre-CBAM window.”
Figure 2: EU27 monthly unwrought aluminium imports
With the Q1 2026 CBAM certificate price confirmed at €75.36/tCO2e, the financial incentive to clear units before January was substantial. Based on CBAM default emissions values, the implied saving equates to roughly €70 per tonne of aluminium, or approximately €47 million in aggregate. A saving of that magnitude more than justifies the logistical effort of accelerating shipments.
The December overshoot above the 2024 monthly average was roughly 368 kt. January and February 2026 combined were about 290 kt below the average, implying significant quantities of front-loaded aluminium had not cleared EU supply chains by the end of February. This excess supply of CBAM-free imports is likely to explain why the definitive phase did not result in a sharp rise in aluminium premiums at the start of the year.
The mid-point of Fastmarkets twice-weekly aluminium P1020A premium, in-whs dp Rotterdam averaged $343 per tonne at the beginning CBAM’s definitive phase in January 2026, little changed from $330 per tonne at the beginning of December.
This trend was seen again in February, with the duty-paid CBAM inclusive premium ticking up only marginally throughout the month, with the mid-point averaging $361 per tonne in February.
HRC imports reflect a similar trend, complicated by EU steel safeguard quotas which cap how much front-loading is possible. Q4 2025 concluded at roughly 3.0 million tonnes, the highest quarter in two years at about 40% above the average. October alone hit 1.42 million tonnes, the highest single month since July 2024 – imports usually spike in the first month of the quarter as that is when the safeguard quotas reset.
Figure 3: EU27 quarterly HRC imports
The reversal in Q1 2026 was equally sharp. Imports in January and February 2026, at 1.3 million tonnes, were around a quarter (or 470 kt) below the average for the first two months of a quarter over the previous two years.
Uncertainty surrounding potential Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism costs for imports has prompted European buyers to lean more heavily on domestic mills, providing a degree of support to local prices.
Fastmarkets’ daily hot-rolled coil index for the domestic Northern European market averaged €708 per tonne in March 2026, recovering sharply from a monthly average of €589 per tonne in October 2025, a gain of €119 per tonne over that period.
The price recovery was underpinned primarily by trade policy support, including CBAM-related uncertainty and the introduction of new safeguard measures, rather than any meaningful improvement in underlying demand, Fastmarkets understands.
The implied CBAM saving is even larger for HRC than for aluminium. Based on default emissions values (which typically assume blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace production), the cost of clearing Q4 2025’s 3.0 million tonnes under CBAM would have been roughly €257 per tonne, or around €776 million in aggregate. The January and February shortfall also implies the EU collected approximately €140 million less in CBAM revenues than it would have done had imports run at their normal pace.
The country-level data shows where the effects are most prominent, lining up with CBAM emissions exposure. Indonesia was the EU’s largest importer of HRC in October and November 2025, at 503 kt. This collapsed by 87% to 64 kt in January and February 2026. Indonesian HRC faces one of the highest CBAM default values with a unit cost of €580 per tonne in 2026, so importers gained a significant advantage by clearing material before the definitive period. Malaysia showed a similar pattern with its emissions-intensive BF-BOF production and high default value, with imports falling from 163 kt to zero in the same period. South Korea’s volumes halved from 172 kt to 93 kt. Front-loading was sharpest from countries with high default values and heavy CBAM unit costs, whereas regions with credible low-carbon routes or actual-emissions data gain market share as trade restructures around the new CBAM costs.
Figure 4: EU27 HRC imports by country
However, the scale of HRC front-loading was likely constrained by the EU’s safeguard quotas. Many key exporting countries, including India, Turkey and South Korea, fully exhausted their Q4 2025 allocations before the quarter was out, leaving no room to accelerate further. Countries without safeguard quotas, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, exhibited a greater degree of front-loading. The quota ceilings can explain why the pre-CBAM surge was less pronounced for HRC than for unwrought aluminium, and why their early-2026 price trajectories diverged so sharply.
European HRC premiums climbed steadily through the opening months of the year, while the effect on P1020 aluminium premiums remained more muted. In short, aluminium importers built a buffer that HRC importers were not allowed to.
“Aluminium importers built a buffer that HRC importers were not allowed to”
The same incentive will be present as free allowances drop from 97.5% in 2026 to 51.5% in 2030, and zero in 2034. A tonne cleared before the year-end will carry less CBAM liability than the same tonne cleared after the following 1 January. The effect at the end of 2026 is likely to be modest, except for imports based on default emissions factors rather than actual values. However, transitions with larger drops in free allowances, such as from 2029 to 2030 where this falls by 26 percentage points, have the potential to trigger December import spikes on a larger scale once again.
CBAM will reshape how goods move into the EU, and the impact will not fall evenly. Fastmarkets CBAM Trade Flow Analysis quantifies the shift through 2035, surfacing the winners and losers at country, product and CN code level. Scenario-based forecasts capture cost, price and quantity impacts across CBAM-affected sectors, while carbon competitiveness benchmarking highlights the exporters best positioned to grow share — and those most at risk of losing it. For tailored analysis on specific products, sourcing countries and trade routes, contact our carbon team at cbamcarbon.queries@fastmarkets.com.
Fastmarkets’ Trade Flow Analysis models future shifts in import volumes, supplier competitiveness, prices, and carbon exposure across products, countries, and CN codes through 2035