CHINESE SHARE SCARE: Where next for copper after the crash?

Copper prices have rebounded by as much as $500 from the six-year lows seen on Tuesday, after the Chinese government took further measures to catch freefalling domestic stocks.

Copper prices have rebounded by as much as $500 from the six-year lows seen on Tuesday, after the Chinese government took further measures to catch freefalling domestic stocks.

However, with more than half of all Chinese equities suspended and with large investors prohibited from selling their positions, conditions in the stock market can hardly be said to have returned to normal.

In all corners of the copper market, the question being asked is will the equities selloff get worse, and what effect will it have on copper prices?

Metal Bulletin sister publication Copper Price Briefing has been asking the same question to producers, consumers, traders, analysts, brokers and hedge funds this week as prices have crashed and rebounded. Here are some of the factors they are keeping an eye on.

CHINESE SHARE SCARE
Expect violent price swings in copper
Price swings could give fresh impetus to copper options trade
Weak demand means consumers unlikely to fix at today’s low levels
Market focuses on copper cost curve as Goldman Sachs expounds bear view

Mark Burton
mburton@metalbulletin.com
Twitter: @mburtonmb

What to read next
Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and Port of Sohar in Oman are becoming tactical workarounds for base metal exports blocked by the Strait of Hormuz closure, with cargo transiting via land-bridge to other Gulf states, such as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates – though capacity constraints and elevated logistics costs limit availability, sources with direct visibility of Gulf supply chains told Fastmarkets.
The Mexican aluminium market might be strongly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with supply constraints and consequently higher premiums, market participants told Fastmarkets on Tuesday March 10.
Lundin Mining and BHP published a preliminary economic assessment on February 16 for their Vicuña joint venture, projecting average annual copper production of 395,000 tonnes over the first 25 years of operation as Argentina’s copper concentrate pipeline continues to build. PSJ Cobre Mendocino separately confirmed on February 14 that its feasibility study was under way.
Chinese lead smelters turned more bearish on the procurement of raw materials in the week to Friday February 13, amid heightened price volatility in silver, which is often contained in lead ores as an important by-product and contributor to smelter profits, sources told Fastmarkets.
Roughly 40,000 tonnes per month of copper cathode that once flowed smoothly into the United Arab Emirates (UAE) through Jebel Ali had few options to reroute after the Strait of Hormuz officially closed on Monday March 2, with the only alternative entry points — Khor Fakkan and Fujairah — already straining under the weight of diverted cargo, market sources told Fastmarkets.
Navigating market volatility with data-driven strategies for resilient mining operations